For Imabari, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Imabari conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
26 Nagano Parceiro
2:0
+98
14/07
Home
39 Zweigen Kanazawa
3:0
+183
07/07
Away
31 Fukushima United
3:2
+56
30/06
Home
16 Kamatamare Sanuki
2:1
+22
22/06
Away
13 Grulla Morioka
0:0
+13
16/06
Home
32 Sagamihara
2:1
+44
08/06
Away
27 Ryukyu
0:1
+20
01/06
Away
30 Matsumoto Yamaga
2:1
+45
Similarly, for Grulla Morioka, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
37 Kataller Toyama
0:1
+29
13/07
Away
26 Nagano Parceiro
0:0
+33
06/07
Home
32 Sagamihara
0:1
+22
29/06
Away
47 Omiya Ardija
0:2
+7
26/06
Away
37 Kataller Toyama
0:3
+3
22/06
Home
34 Imabari
0:0
+30
16/06
Home
26 Nagano Parceiro
3:2
+32
02/06
Away
32 Sagamihara
1:2
+22
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 482 points to the home team and 179 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Imabari) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.97% of victories for the team Imabari occurred in home matches. For the team Grulla Morioka this indicator is 52.31%. On average, this equates to 53.14%, suggesting a slight advantage for Imabari all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Imabari
Imabari 53.97%
Grulla Morioka
Grulla Morioka 52.31%
Average
Average 53.14%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.14% of the home team's points and 46.86% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Imabari with an advantage of 256 points against 84. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.29% to 24.71%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.51% with a coefficient of 4.65. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.54, and for the away team's victory it is 7.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 82.82%, and the away team's victory - 17.18%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Grulla Morioka's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.65%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.42, while in reality, it should be 5.16.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.54
4.65
7.42
Our calculation
1.69
4.65
5.16
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
7.42
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ROI +7.75%
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