Huracan vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction

Huracan

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Independiente Rivadavia

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Huracan and Independiente Rivadavia. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Huracan

For Huracan, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Huracan conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/03

Away

33 Racing de Avellaneda

1:0

+79

03/03

Away

24 Velez Sarsfield

2:0

+99

24/02

Home

30 San Lorenzo

2:0

+74

17/02

Home

19 Union de Santa Fe

1:0

+23

13/02

Away

33 Argentinos Juniors

1:1

+44

08/02

Home

39 Tigre

2:0

+85

03/02

Away

43 Boca Juniors

1:2

+39

30/01

Home

36 Estudiantes de La Plata

0:0

+24

Independiente Rivadavia

Similarly, for Independiente Rivadavia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

11/03

Home

19 Union de Santa Fe

2:0

+45

02/03

Home

28 Lanus

1:1

+25

25/02

Away

33 Argentinos Juniors

0:0

+47

16/02

Home

39 Tigre

1:4

+3

12/02

Away

43 Boca Juniors

0:2

+8

08/02

Home

36 Estudiantes de La Plata

2:2

+27

04/02

Away

23 Belgrano

3:0

+111

29/01

Home

27 Barracas Central

0:0

+18

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 469 points to the home team and 284 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Huracan) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Huracan 469
Independiente Rivadavia 284

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.16% of victories for the team Huracan occurred in home matches. For the team Independiente Rivadavia this indicator is 60%. On average, this equates to 61.58%, suggesting a slight advantage for Huracan all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Huracan

Huracan 63.16%

Independiente Rivadavia

Independiente Rivadavia 60%

Average

Average 61.58%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.58% of the home team's points and 38.42% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Huracan with an advantage of 289 points against 109. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.59% to 27.41%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Huracan 289
Independiente Rivadavia 109

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.55% with a coefficient of 3.63. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.78, and for the away team's victory it is 6.12. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.44%, and the away team's victory - 22.56%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Huracan 77.44%
Independiente Rivadavia 22.56%

Our calculation

Huracan 72.59%
Independiente Rivadavia 27.41%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Independiente Rivadavia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.92%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.12, while in reality, it should be 5.03.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.78

3.63

6.12

Our calculation

1.9

3.63

5.03

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

6.12

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 2446

ROI +9.69%

EARNINGS +$23697

10 March 2025 - 16 March 2025

QUANTITY 621

ROI +13.82%

EARNINGS +$8583

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