Heidelberg United vs Dandenong Thunder prediction

Heidelberg United

Match start date: May 31, 2024

VS

Tournament: Australia. National Premier League. Victoria

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Dandenong Thunder

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Heidelberg United and Dandenong Thunder. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Heidelberg United

For Heidelberg United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Heidelberg United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

26/05

Away

50 Oakleigh Cannons

0:3

+5

19/05

Home

24 Altona Magic

1:1

+23

10/05

Away

27 Dandenong City

3:1

+91

04/05

Home

14 Manningham United Blues

5:0

+73

27/04

Away

43 Hume City

2:2

+41

19/04

Home

10 Moreland City

3:2

+13

12/04

Away

22 Melbourne Knights

1:0

+35

05/04

Home

11 St Albans Saints

6:0

+44

Dandenong Thunder

Similarly, for Dandenong Thunder, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

25/05

Home

14 Manningham United Blues

2:1

+29

18/05

Away

43 Hume City

0:0

+44

11/05

Away

10 Moreland City

0:4

+1

03/05

Home

22 Melbourne Knights

0:3

+2

27/04

Home

11 St Albans Saints

3:0

+48

20/04

Home

49 Avondale FC

0:8

+2

13/04

Away

40 Port Melbourne Sharks

0:3

+3

06/04

Home

54 South Melbourne

1:2

+32

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 326 points to the home team and 162 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Heidelberg United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Heidelberg United 326
Dandenong Thunder 162

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.84% of victories for the team Heidelberg United occurred in home matches. For the team Dandenong Thunder this indicator is 46.97%. On average, this equates to 50.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Heidelberg United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Heidelberg United

Heidelberg United 54.84%

Dandenong Thunder

Dandenong Thunder 46.97%

Average

Average 50.91%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.91% of the home team's points and 49.1% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Heidelberg United with an advantage of 166 points against 79. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.61% to 32.39%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Heidelberg United 166
Dandenong Thunder 79

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.08% with a coefficient of 5.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.47, and for the away team's victory it is 7.08. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 82.76%, and the away team's victory - 17.24%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Heidelberg United 82.76%
Dandenong Thunder 17.24%

Our calculation

Heidelberg United 67.61%
Dandenong Thunder 32.39%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Dandenong Thunder's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.96%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.08, while in reality, it should be 3.77.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.47

5.53

7.08

Our calculation

1.81

5.53

3.77

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

7.08

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

Australia. National Premier League. Victoria

QUANTITY 196

ROI +10.97%

EARNINGS +$2150

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