Heerenveen vs Heracles prediction

Heerenveen

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: Netherlands. Eredivisie

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Heracles

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Heerenveen and Heracles. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Heerenveen

For Heerenveen, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Heerenveen conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

44 PSV Eindhoven

1:2

+53

02/03

Home

35 AZ Alkmaar

3:1

+72

16/02

Away

23 Zwolle

1:1

+30

09/02

Home

41 Twente

3:3

+30

01/02

Home

28 Fortuna Sittard

2:2

+19

25/01

Away

22 Groningen

0:1

+20

19/01

Home

56 Ajax

0:2

+5

12/01

Away

25 NAC Breda

4:2

+71

Heracles

Similarly, for Heracles, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Away

28 Fortuna Sittard

0:1

+31

02/03

Home

23 Zwolle

4:2

+60

16/02

Away

56 Ajax

0:4

+4

08/02

Home

38 Go Ahead Eagles

4:2

+80

31/01

Away

25 NAC Breda

1:1

+27

28/01

Home

22 Groningen

1:1

+15

24/01

Home

37 Utrecht

1:1

+28

19/01

Away

15 Almere City

2:0

+39

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 300 points to the home team and 283 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Heerenveen) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Heerenveen 300
Heracles 283

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.25% of victories for the team Heerenveen occurred in home matches. For the team Heracles this indicator is 63.33%. On average, this equates to 65.79%, suggesting a slight advantage for Heerenveen all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Heerenveen

Heerenveen 68.25%

Heracles

Heracles 63.33%

Average

Average 65.79%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.79% of the home team's points and 34.21% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Heerenveen with an advantage of 197 points against 97. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.05% to 32.95%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Heerenveen 197
Heracles 97

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.19% with a coefficient of 3.97. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.85, and for the away team's victory it is 4.85. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.44%, and the away team's victory - 27.56%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Heerenveen 72.44%
Heracles 27.56%

Our calculation

Heerenveen 67.05%
Heracles 32.95%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Heracles's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.06%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.85, while in reality, it should be 4.06.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.85

3.97

4.85

Our calculation

1.99

3.97

4.06

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

4.85

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1479

ROI +9.05%

EARNINGS +$13379

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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