For Hamburger, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hamburger conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/12
Home
25 Greuther Furth
5:0
+110
14/12
Away
19 Ulm 1846
1:1
+24
08/12
Home
31 Darmstadt 98
2:2
+27
01/12
Away
35 Karlsruher
3:1
+131
23/11
Home
26 Schalke 04
2:2
+19
08/11
Away
17 Eintracht Braunschweig
1:3
+3
03/11
Home
28 Nurnberg
1:1
+18
26/10
Away
36 Elversberg
2:4
+5
Similarly, for Koln, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/12
Away
33 Kaiserslautern
1:0
+64
15/12
Home
28 Nurnberg
3:1
+78
08/12
Away
13 Jahn Regensburg
1:0
+25
30/11
Home
35 Hannover 96
2:2
+30
22/11
Away
21 Preussen Munster
1:0
+40
09/11
Home
25 Greuther Furth
1:0
+33
02/11
Away
29 Hertha Berlin
1:0
+44
25/10
Home
35 Paderborn 07
1:2
+22
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 336 points to the home team and 335 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hamburger) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.46% of victories for the team Hamburger occurred in home matches. For the team Koln this indicator is 51.85%. On average, this equates to 58.65%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hamburger all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Hamburger
Hamburger 65.46%
Koln
Koln 51.85%
Average
Average 58.65%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.65% of the home team's points and 41.35% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Hamburger with an advantage of 197 points against 138. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.74% to 41.26%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.94% with a coefficient of 4.01. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.65, and for the away team's victory it is 2.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 50.3%, and the away team's victory - 49.7%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Hamburger's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.65, while in reality, it should be 2.27.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.65
4.01
2.68
Our calculation
2.27
4.01
3.23
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.65
2024 December
QUANTITY 2250
ROI +3.69%
EARNINGS +$8294
2025 January
QUANTITY 1086
ROI +4.35%
EARNINGS +$4720
18 January 2025
QUANTITY 202
ROI +2.94%
EARNINGS +$594
Germany. Bundesliga 2
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