Hamburger vs Koln prediction

Hamburger

Match start date: Jan 18, 2025

VS

Tournament: Germany. Bundesliga 2

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Koln

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Hamburger and Koln. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Hamburger

For Hamburger, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hamburger conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

21/12

Home

25 Greuther Furth

5:0

+110

14/12

Away

19 Ulm 1846

1:1

+24

08/12

Home

31 Darmstadt 98

2:2

+27

01/12

Away

35 Karlsruher

3:1

+131

23/11

Home

26 Schalke 04

2:2

+19

08/11

Away

17 Eintracht Braunschweig

1:3

+3

03/11

Home

28 Nurnberg

1:1

+18

26/10

Away

36 Elversberg

2:4

+5

Koln

Similarly, for Koln, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

22/12

Away

33 Kaiserslautern

1:0

+64

15/12

Home

28 Nurnberg

3:1

+78

08/12

Away

13 Jahn Regensburg

1:0

+25

30/11

Home

35 Hannover 96

2:2

+30

22/11

Away

21 Preussen Munster

1:0

+40

09/11

Home

25 Greuther Furth

1:0

+33

02/11

Away

29 Hertha Berlin

1:0

+44

25/10

Home

35 Paderborn 07

1:2

+22

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 336 points to the home team and 335 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hamburger) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Hamburger 336
Koln 335

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.46% of victories for the team Hamburger occurred in home matches. For the team Koln this indicator is 51.85%. On average, this equates to 58.65%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hamburger all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Hamburger

Hamburger 65.46%

Koln

Koln 51.85%

Average

Average 58.65%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.65% of the home team's points and 41.35% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Hamburger with an advantage of 197 points against 138. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.74% to 41.26%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Hamburger 197
Koln 138

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.94% with a coefficient of 4.01. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.65, and for the away team's victory it is 2.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 50.3%, and the away team's victory - 49.7%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Hamburger 50.3%
Koln 49.7%

Our calculation

Hamburger 58.74%
Koln 41.26%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Hamburger's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.65, while in reality, it should be 2.27.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.65

4.01

2.68

Our calculation

2.27

4.01

3.23

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

2.65

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

2025 January

QUANTITY 1086

ROI +4.35%

EARNINGS +$4720

18 January 2025

QUANTITY 202

ROI +2.94%

EARNINGS +$594

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