For Grobinas, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Grobinas conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
02/05
Away
46 Riga FC
0:2
+9
28/04
Away
17 Jelgava
1:2
+18
23/04
Home
50 Rigas Futbola Skola
0:4
+2
18/04
Home
15 Liepaja
3:2
+22
13/04
Home
21 METTA/LU
3:0
+84
09/04
Away
39 Valmiera
1:1
+43
04/04
Away
30 Tukums-2000
0:2
+4
31/03
Home
28 Auda
1:1
+19
Similarly, for BFC Daugavpils, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
03/05
Home
17 Jelgava
1:0
+25
28/04
Home
15 Liepaja
0:0
+13
22/04
Away
39 Valmiera
1:0
+85
17/04
Away
28 Auda
0:1
+27
12/04
Away
46 Riga FC
0:2
+8
07/04
Home
50 Rigas Futbola Skola
1:1
+39
03/04
Away
21 METTA/LU
1:0
+37
30/03
Home
30 Tukums-2000
3:1
+59
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 200 points to the home team and 292 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Grobinas) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.77% of victories for the team Grobinas occurred in home matches. For the team BFC Daugavpils this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 65.22%, suggesting a slight advantage for Grobinas all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Grobinas
Grobinas 63.77%
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils 66.67%
Average
Average 65.22%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.22% of the home team's points and 34.78% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Grobinas with an advantage of 131 points against 102. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.28% to 43.72%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.41% with a coefficient of 3.52. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4, and for the away team's victory it is 2.15. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 34.89%, and the away team's victory - 65.11%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Grobinas's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 21.38%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4, while in reality, it should be 2.48.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4
3.52
2.15
Our calculation
2.48
3.52
3.19
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
29 April 2024 - 5 May 2024
QUANTITY 709
ROI +5.25%
EARNINGS +$3723
6 May 2024
QUANTITY 71
ROI +34.66%
EARNINGS +$2461
Italy. Serie A
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