For Goncalense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Goncalense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
11 Serrano-RJ
1:0
+23
13/07
Home
17 Artsul
0:0
+16
06/07
Away
14 Cabofriense
0:0
+17
29/06
Home
40 Duque de Caxias
1:2
+29
23/06
Home
19 Americano
1:1
+17
15/06
Away
42 Olaria
1:2
+34
01/06
Away
46 Marica
1:4
+3
25/05
Home
24 Resende
1:0
+29
Similarly, for Audax-RJ, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/07
Away
24 Resende
3:3
+32
17/07
Home
27 America-RJ
1:1
+27
03/07
Home
11 Serrano-RJ
2:1
+16
26/06
Away
17 Artsul
3:0
+91
19/06
Home
14 Cabofriense
2:1
+18
05/06
Home
19 Americano
0:0
+16
29/05
Away
42 Olaria
1:0
+73
22/05
Home
40 Duque de Caxias
1:1
+29
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 169 points to the home team and 302 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Goncalense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.55% of victories for the team Goncalense occurred in home matches. For the team Audax-RJ this indicator is 56.67%. On average, this equates to 55.61%, suggesting a slight advantage for Goncalense all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Goncalense
Goncalense 54.55%
Audax-RJ
Audax-RJ 56.67%
Average
Average 55.61%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.61% of the home team's points and 44.39% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Audax-RJ with an advantage of 134 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.82% to 41.18%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.33% with a coefficient of 3.41. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.11, and for the away team's victory it is 4.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.02%, and the away team's victory - 32.98%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Audax-RJ's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 25.37%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.29, while in reality, it should be 2.41.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.11
3.41
4.29
Our calculation
3.44
3.41
2.41
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.29
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
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2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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