Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II prediction

Go Ahead Eagles

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Netherlands. Eredivisie

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Willem II

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Go Ahead Eagles and Willem II. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Go Ahead Eagles

For Go Ahead Eagles, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Go Ahead Eagles conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/03

Away

23 NEC Nijmegen

3:2

+53

01/03

Home

44 PSV Eindhoven

3:2

+58

23/02

Away

56 Ajax

0:2

+11

14/02

Home

20 Sparta Rotterdam

1:0

+29

08/02

Away

26 Heracles

2:4

+5

02/02

Home

41 Twente

2:2

+28

18/01

Home

22 Groningen

2:1

+23

10/01

Away

28 Fortuna Sittard

3:0

+136

Willem II

Similarly, for Willem II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Home

37 Utrecht

2:3

+31

02/03

Away

20 Sparta Rotterdam

0:4

+1

15/02

Home

22 Groningen

1:3

+2

08/02

Away

44 PSV Eindhoven

1:1

+56

02/02

Home

35 AZ Alkmaar

0:2

+4

26/01

Away

20 RKC Waalwijk

0:2

+3

18/01

Home

42 Feyenoord

1:1

+33

12/01

Away

41 Twente

2:6

+2

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 343 points to the home team and 131 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Go Ahead Eagles) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Go Ahead Eagles 343
Willem II 131

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.67% of victories for the team Go Ahead Eagles occurred in home matches. For the team Willem II this indicator is 56.9%. On average, this equates to 59.28%, suggesting a slight advantage for Go Ahead Eagles all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles 61.67%

Willem II

Willem II 56.9%

Average

Average 59.28%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.28% of the home team's points and 40.72% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Go Ahead Eagles with an advantage of 203 points against 53. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.2% to 20.8%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Go Ahead Eagles 203
Willem II 53

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.57% with a coefficient of 4.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.66, and for the away team's victory it is 5.86. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.95%, and the away team's victory - 22.05%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Go Ahead Eagles 77.95%
Willem II 22.05%

Our calculation

Go Ahead Eagles 79.2%
Willem II 20.8%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Go Ahead Eagles's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.66, while in reality, it should be 1.63.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.66

4.43

5.86

Our calculation

1.63

4.43

6.21

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

1.66

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1477

ROI +9%

EARNINGS +$13287

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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