For Go Ahead Eagles, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Go Ahead Eagles conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/03
Away
23 NEC Nijmegen
3:2
+53
01/03
Home
44 PSV Eindhoven
3:2
+58
23/02
Away
56 Ajax
0:2
+11
14/02
Home
20 Sparta Rotterdam
1:0
+29
08/02
Away
26 Heracles
2:4
+5
02/02
Home
41 Twente
2:2
+28
18/01
Home
22 Groningen
2:1
+23
10/01
Away
28 Fortuna Sittard
3:0
+136
Similarly, for Willem II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/03
Home
37 Utrecht
2:3
+31
02/03
Away
20 Sparta Rotterdam
0:4
+1
15/02
Home
22 Groningen
1:3
+2
08/02
Away
44 PSV Eindhoven
1:1
+56
02/02
Home
35 AZ Alkmaar
0:2
+4
26/01
Away
20 RKC Waalwijk
0:2
+3
18/01
Home
42 Feyenoord
1:1
+33
12/01
Away
41 Twente
2:6
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 343 points to the home team and 131 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Go Ahead Eagles) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.67% of victories for the team Go Ahead Eagles occurred in home matches. For the team Willem II this indicator is 56.9%. On average, this equates to 59.28%, suggesting a slight advantage for Go Ahead Eagles all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles 61.67%
Willem II
Willem II 56.9%
Average
Average 59.28%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.28% of the home team's points and 40.72% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Go Ahead Eagles with an advantage of 203 points against 53. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.2% to 20.8%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.57% with a coefficient of 4.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.66, and for the away team's victory it is 5.86. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.95%, and the away team's victory - 22.05%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Go Ahead Eagles's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.66, while in reality, it should be 1.63.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.66
4.43
5.86
Our calculation
1.63
4.43
6.21
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.66
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1477
ROI +9%
EARNINGS +$13287
Previous week
QUANTITY 609
ROI +11.65%
EARNINGS +$7095
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