Genclerbirligi vs Kocaelispor prediction

Genclerbirligi

Match start date: Jan 20, 2025

VS

Tournament: Turkey. 1 Lig

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Kocaelispor

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Genclerbirligi and Kocaelispor. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Genclerbirligi

For Genclerbirligi, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Genclerbirligi conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

12/01

Home

1 Yeni Malatyaspor

3:0

+4

06/01

Away

28 Sakaryaspor

0:0

+40

23/12

Home

17 Adanaspor

0:2

+2

15/12

Away

36 Bandirmaspor

2:2

+43

08/12

Home

38 Fatih Karagumruk

1:0

+43

01/12

Away

29 Umraniyespor

3:3

+32

23/11

Home

33 Ankaragucu

1:0

+31

10/11

Away

27 Sanliurfaspor

1:3

+4

Kocaelispor

Similarly, for Kocaelispor, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

12/01

Away

29 Keciorengucu

1:0

+64

03/01

Home

27 Igdir Belediyespor

3:0

+128

22/12

Away

33 Boluspor

3:1

+127

15/12

Home

31 Erokspor

0:2

+3

07/12

Away

1 Yeni Malatyaspor

3:1

+3

29/11

Home

17 Adanaspor

2:0

+32

24/11

Home

36 Bandirmaspor

2:2

+25

10/11

Away

28 Sakaryaspor

1:0

+51

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 197 points to the home team and 434 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Genclerbirligi) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Genclerbirligi 197
Kocaelispor 434

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.71% of victories for the team Genclerbirligi occurred in home matches. For the team Kocaelispor this indicator is 58.21%. On average, this equates to 59.46%, suggesting a slight advantage for Genclerbirligi all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Genclerbirligi

Genclerbirligi 60.71%

Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor 58.21%

Average

Average 59.46%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.46% of the home team's points and 40.54% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Kocaelispor with an advantage of 176 points against 117. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.97% to 40.03%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Genclerbirligi 117
Kocaelispor 176

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.33% with a coefficient of 3.41. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.08, and for the away team's victory it is 2.62. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 45.89%, and the away team's victory - 54.11%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Genclerbirligi 45.89%
Kocaelispor 54.11%

Our calculation

Genclerbirligi 40.03%
Kocaelispor 59.97%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kocaelispor's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.75%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.62, while in reality, it should be 2.36.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.08

3.41

2.62

Our calculation

3.53

3.41

2.36

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

2.62

Our prediction statistics

2025 January

QUANTITY 1969

ROI +7.37%

EARNINGS +$14510

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

13 January 2025 - 19 January 2025

QUANTITY 511

ROI +8.98%

EARNINGS +$4588

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