For Flandria, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Flandria conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
22/07
Away
33 Excursionistas
1:2
+36
14/07
Home
20 Acassuso
0:0
+18
11/07
Away
19 San Martin Burzaco
1:0
+44
06/07
Home
28 Deportivo UAI Urquiza
1:2
+17
29/06
Away
53 Colegiales
0:1
+46
22/06
Home
32 Dock Sud
0:3
+2
15/06
Away
23 Villa Dalmine
1:1
+26
09/06
Home
16 Villa San Carlos
3:0
+47
Similarly, for Sacachispas, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
16 Villa San Carlos
0:0
+14
15/07
Away
16 Sportivo Italiano
0:0
+22
09/07
Home
34 Argentino de Merlo
2:3
+24
06/07
Away
25 Liniers
0:3
+2
01/07
Home
27 Comunicaciones
1:1
+22
23/06
Away
42 Deportivo Armenio
1:0
+72
17/06
Away
35 Argentino de Quilmes
0:2
+5
08/06
Home
32 Fenix
0:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 237 points to the home team and 182 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Flandria) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.67% of victories for the team Flandria occurred in home matches. For the team Sacachispas this indicator is 61.54%. On average, this equates to 61.6%, suggesting a slight advantage for Flandria all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Flandria
Flandria 61.67%
Sacachispas
Sacachispas 61.54%
Average
Average 61.6%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.6% of the home team's points and 38.4% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Flandria with an advantage of 146 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.63% to 32.37%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.99% with a coefficient of 3.45. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.83, and for the away team's victory it is 6.07. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 76.82%, and the away team's victory - 23.18%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sacachispas's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.07, while in reality, it should be 4.35.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.83
3.45
6.07
Our calculation
2.08
3.45
4.35
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
6.07
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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Uruguay. Primera Division
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