For Ferroviario, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ferroviario conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
23/07
Away
22 Confianca
1:1
+34
18/07
Away
36 Ypiranga
0:2
+8
06/07
Home
43 Volta Redonda
0:2
+5
30/06
Away
28 Remo
1:2
+29
27/06
Home
42 Ferroviaria
0:0
+34
20/06
Home
10 Sao Jose-RS
3:2
+11
16/06
Away
42 Athletic
1:3
+7
09/06
Away
45 Botafogo-PB
0:1
+36
Similarly, for CSA, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Away
28 Remo
1:2
+31
15/07
Home
23 Floresta
1:2
+14
07/07
Away
25 ABC-RN
2:0
+88
04/07
Home
29 Figueirense
3:1
+66
28/06
Away
22 Confianca
1:0
+47
15/06
Home
45 Botafogo-PB
1:1
+33
11/06
Home
10 Sao Jose-RS
1:1
+6
04/06
Away
43 Volta Redonda
1:2
+35
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 163 points to the home team and 320 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ferroviario) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.82% of victories for the team Ferroviario occurred in home matches. For the team CSA this indicator is 60%. On average, this equates to 62.41%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ferroviario all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Ferroviario
Ferroviario 64.82%
CSA
CSA 60%
Average
Average 62.41%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.41% of the home team's points and 37.59% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is CSA with an advantage of 120 points against 102. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.26% to 45.74%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.3% with a coefficient of 3.3. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.43, and for the away team's victory it is 3.5. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.96%, and the away team's victory - 41.05%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of CSA's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.96%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.5, while in reality, it should be 2.64.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.43
3.3
3.5
Our calculation
3.14
3.3
2.64
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.5
2024 June
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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