For FC Tallinn, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team FC Tallinn conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Home
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
3:0
+91
13/07
Away
40 Flora II
3:0
+208
06/07
Home
41 Viimsi
0:2
+6
29/06
Away
46 Harju JK Laagri
1:1
+47
14/06
Home
40 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
1:1
+37
02/06
Away
32 FCI Levadia II
1:0
+51
30/05
Home
20 Elva
4:0
+75
26/05
Home
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
8:1
+70
Similarly, for Kalev Tallinn II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Away
40 Flora II
3:1
+140
20/07
Home
20 Elva
2:2
+18
13/07
Away
46 Harju JK Laagri
3:3
+52
07/07
Home
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
3:5
+2
29/06
Away
40 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
2:5
+3
16/06
Away
41 Viimsi
1:3
+6
03/06
Home
11 Tabasalu Charma
0:1
+7
30/05
Home
32 FCI Levadia II
1:3
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 585 points to the home team and 231 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (FC Tallinn) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 46.15% of victories for the team FC Tallinn occurred in home matches. For the team Kalev Tallinn II this indicator is 53.33%. On average, this equates to 49.74%, suggesting a slight advantage for FC Tallinn all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn 46.15%
Kalev Tallinn II
Kalev Tallinn II 53.33%
Average
Average 49.74%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.74% of the home team's points and 50.26% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is FC Tallinn with an advantage of 291 points against 116. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.49% to 28.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 13.39% with a coefficient of 7.47. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.27, and for the away team's victory it is 12.72. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 90.92%, and the away team's victory - 9.08%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kalev Tallinn II's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.43%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 12.72, while in reality, it should be 4.05.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.27
7.47
12.72
Our calculation
1.61
7.47
4.05
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
12.72
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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