For FC Tallinn, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team FC Tallinn conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/05
Home
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
8:1
+83
19/05
Away
10 Tabasalu Charma
2:1
+20
11/05
Home
18 Kalev Tallinn II
3:2
+32
04/05
Away
18 Elva
3:2
+34
27/04
Home
35 FCI Levadia II
3:4
+25
21/04
Away
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
1:0
+19
13/04
Home
40 Flora II
2:4
+5
07/04
Home
10 Tabasalu Charma
4:0
+38
Similarly, for Elva, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
26/05
Home
37 Viimsi
0:2
+5
18/05
Away
18 Kalev Tallinn II
0:4
+1
12/05
Home
40 Flora II
2:2
+34
04/05
Home
41 FC Tallinn
2:3
+29
27/04
Away
55 Harju JK Laagri
0:5
+3
21/04
Home
10 Tabasalu Charma
3:1
+22
14/04
Away
37 Viimsi
1:1
+38
07/04
Home
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
2:2
+10
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 255 points to the home team and 142 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (FC Tallinn) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 49.23% of victories for the team FC Tallinn occurred in home matches. For the team Elva this indicator is 63.64%. On average, this equates to 56.43%, suggesting a slight advantage for FC Tallinn all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn 49.23%
Elva
Elva 63.64%
Average
Average 56.43%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.43% of the home team's points and 43.57% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is FC Tallinn with an advantage of 144 points against 62. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 69.99% to 30.01%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 11.16% with a coefficient of 8.96. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.22, and for the away team's victory it is 14.38. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 92.17%, and the away team's victory - 7.83%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Elva's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 20.03%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 14.38, while in reality, it should be 3.75.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.22
8.96
14.38
Our calculation
1.61
8.96
3.75
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
14.38
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