Estudiantes de La Plata vs Newells Old Boys prediction

Estudiantes de La Plata

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Newells Old Boys

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Estudiantes de La Plata and Newells Old Boys. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Estudiantes de La Plata

For Estudiantes de La Plata, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Estudiantes de La Plata conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/03

Away

36 Defensa y Justicia

0:1

+41

02/03

Away

40 River Plate

2:0

+159

22/02

Home

32 Central Cordoba

3:2

+44

15/02

Away

6 Aldosivi

2:2

+7

12/02

Home

17 Banfield

1:0

+23

08/02

Away

34 Independiente Rivadavia

2:2

+37

04/02

Home

33 Racing de Avellaneda

2:0

+69

30/01

Away

38 Huracan

0:0

+37

Newells Old Boys

Similarly, for Newells Old Boys, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

10/03

Home

23 Belgrano

0:0

+21

04/03

Away

23 Atletico Tucuman

2:1

+53

24/02

Away

27 Barracas Central

0:2

+4

16/02

Home

30 Rosario Central

1:2

+19

12/02

Home

36 Defensa y Justicia

0:1

+22

08/02

Away

32 Central Cordoba

0:2

+5

03/02

Home

6 Aldosivi

1:0

+8

28/01

Away

17 Banfield

0:3

+1

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 417 points to the home team and 132 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Estudiantes de La Plata) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Estudiantes de La Plata 417
Newells Old Boys 132

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Estudiantes de La Plata occurred in home matches. For the team Newells Old Boys this indicator is 54.24%. On average, this equates to 57.12%, suggesting a slight advantage for Estudiantes de La Plata all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Estudiantes de La Plata

Estudiantes de La Plata 60%

Newells Old Boys

Newells Old Boys 54.24%

Average

Average 57.12%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.12% of the home team's points and 42.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Estudiantes de La Plata with an advantage of 238 points against 57. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 80.76% to 19.24%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Estudiantes de La Plata 238
Newells Old Boys 57

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.74% with a coefficient of 3.48. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.91, and for the away team's victory it is 5.28. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 73.42%, and the away team's victory - 26.58%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Estudiantes de La Plata 73.42%
Newells Old Boys 26.58%

Our calculation

Estudiantes de La Plata 80.76%
Newells Old Boys 19.24%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Estudiantes de La Plata's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.91, while in reality, it should be 1.74.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.91

3.48

5.28

Our calculation

1.74

3.48

7.29

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

1.91

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1477

ROI +9%

EARNINGS +$13287

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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