For Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/05
Away
26 Independiente Avellaneda Reserves
1:1
+35
14/05
Home
29 Tigre Reserves
1:0
+37
07/05
Away
11 Sarmiento Junin Reserves
1:0
+24
25/04
Away
33 Newell's Old Boys Reserves
0:2
+6
18/04
Home
34 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
3:2
+46
10/04
Away
41 Lanus Reserves
2:2
+44
04/04
Home
17 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves
3:1
+32
26/03
Home
37 Defensa y Justicia Reserves
2:1
+37
Similarly, for Huracan Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/05
Home
33 Newell's Old Boys Reserves
0:0
+38
16/05
Away
34 Talleres de Cordoba Reserves
0:2
+5
08/05
Home
41 Lanus Reserves
0:1
+35
02/05
Home
31 Boca Juniors Reserves
1:5
+1
24/04
Away
37 Defensa y Justicia Reserves
0:0
+40
17/04
Home
34 Godoy Cruz Reserves
2:0
+79
10/04
Away
12 Atletico Platense Reserves
4:0
+56
02/04
Away
25 San Lorenzo Reserves
1:1
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 259 points to the home team and 275 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.1% of victories for the team Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Huracan Reserves this indicator is 48.33%. On average, this equates to 57.22%, suggesting a slight advantage for Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves
Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves 66.1%
Huracan Reserves
Huracan Reserves 48.33%
Average
Average 57.22%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.22% of the home team's points and 42.78% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Estudiantes de La Plata Reserves with an advantage of 148 points against 118. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.81% to 44.19%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.71% with a coefficient of 3.89. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.8, and for the away team's victory it is 5.31. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.65%, and the away team's victory - 25.35%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Huracan Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 18.84%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.31, while in reality, it should be 3.05.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.8
3.89
5.31
Our calculation
2.41
3.89
3.05
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.31
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
USA. MLS
USA. USL. Championship
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