For Deportes Santa Cruz, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Deportes Santa Cruz conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
28 Santiago Wanderers
1:2
+19
16/07
Away
38 Barnechea
2:4
+8
01/06
Away
33 Santiago Morning
1:2
+35
27/05
Home
33 Deportes Limache
1:1
+27
19/05
Away
25 San Luis
2:1
+51
14/05
Home
33 Rangers Talca
2:4
+4
04/05
Away
20 Deportes Temuco
1:1
+23
27/04
Home
32 Antofagasta
2:1
+25
Similarly, for Curico Unido, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Home
38 Barnechea
0:1
+23
14/07
Away
11 Union San Felipe
1:3
+2
02/06
Away
32 Antofagasta
1:1
+43
26/05
Home
33 Santiago Morning
2:1
+47
19/05
Away
28 Santiago Wanderers
2:2
+30
13/05
Home
25 San Luis
1:0
+32
06/05
Away
33 Rangers Talca
3:2
+51
28/04
Home
20 Deportes Temuco
0:0
+13
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 192 points to the home team and 241 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Deportes Santa Cruz) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.8% of victories for the team Deportes Santa Cruz occurred in home matches. For the team Curico Unido this indicator is 59.68%. On average, this equates to 63.74%, suggesting a slight advantage for Deportes Santa Cruz all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Deportes Santa Cruz
Deportes Santa Cruz 67.8%
Curico Unido
Curico Unido 59.68%
Average
Average 63.74%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.74% of the home team's points and 36.26% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Deportes Santa Cruz with an advantage of 123 points against 87. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.4% to 41.6%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.09% with a coefficient of 3.56. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.46, and for the away team's victory it is 3.19. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.43%, and the away team's victory - 43.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportes Santa Cruz's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.97%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.46, while in reality, it should be 2.38.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.46
3.56
3.19
Our calculation
2.38
3.56
3.34
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.46
2024 June
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2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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