For Daegu, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Daegu conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
26 Gwangju FC
0:1
+19
14/07
Away
38 Suwon FC
2:2
+50
09/07
Home
22 Incheon United
0:0
+19
06/07
Home
37 Pohang Steelers
3:3
+26
29/06
Away
36 Gimcheon Sangmu
0:2
+6
26/06
Away
36 Ulsan
0:1
+33
22/06
Home
22 Jeonbuk Motors
3:0
+62
16/06
Home
25 Jeju United
1:0
+30
Similarly, for Daejeon Citizen, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
37 Pohang Steelers
1:2
+24
13/07
Home
40 Gangwon
1:1
+37
10/07
Away
31 Seoul
1:2
+28
07/07
Home
22 Jeonbuk Motors
2:2
+16
29/06
Home
38 Suwon FC
0:2
+4
25/06
Away
36 Gimcheon Sangmu
0:2
+6
22/06
Home
26 Gwangju FC
2:1
+31
15/06
Away
37 Pohang Steelers
1:1
+41
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 246 points to the home team and 186 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Daegu) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64% of victories for the team Daegu occurred in home matches. For the team Daejeon Citizen this indicator is 60.38%. On average, this equates to 62.19%, suggesting a slight advantage for Daegu all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Daegu
Daegu 64%
Daejeon Citizen
Daejeon Citizen 60.38%
Average
Average 62.19%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.19% of the home team's points and 37.81% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Daegu with an advantage of 153 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.48% to 31.52%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.01% with a coefficient of 3.57. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.37, and for the away team's victory it is 3.35. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.56%, and the away team's victory - 41.44%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Daegu's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.19%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.37, while in reality, it should be 2.03.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.37
3.57
3.35
Our calculation
2.03
3.57
4.41
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.37
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Japan. J League. Division 1
China PR. Super League
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