Colon de Santa Fe vs Atletico Mitre prediction

Colon de Santa Fe

Match start date: Aug 6, 2024

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Nacional. Group Stage

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Atletico Mitre

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Colon de Santa Fe and Atletico Mitre. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Colon de Santa Fe

For Colon de Santa Fe, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Colon de Santa Fe conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

27/07

Away

38 Aldosivi

0:1

+43

21/07

Home

34 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

3:0

+119

14/07

Away

23 Patronato

0:1

+27

07/07

Away

21 Almirante Brown

0:0

+28

01/07

Home

26 Atlanta

1:1

+18

23/06

Away

21 Defensores Unidos

1:2

+22

09/06

Away

36 Deportivo Madryn

0:0

+41

01/06

Home

9 Atletico de Rafaela

1:0

+9

Atletico Mitre

Similarly, for Atletico Mitre, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

27/07

Home

21 Almirante Brown

2:1

+29

22/07

Away

26 Atlanta

0:0

+36

14/07

Home

21 Defensores Unidos

1:0

+17

06/07

Away

36 Deportivo Madryn

0:1

+38

30/06

Home

9 Atletico de Rafaela

2:0

+19

23/06

Away

41 San Telmo

0:0

+52

09/06

Away

21 Chaco For Ever

1:1

+26

02/06

Home

28 Defensores de Belgrano

2:0

+52

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 308 points to the home team and 270 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Colon de Santa Fe) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Colon de Santa Fe 308
Atletico Mitre 270

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 74.55% of victories for the team Colon de Santa Fe occurred in home matches. For the team Atletico Mitre this indicator is 70.18%. On average, this equates to 72.36%, suggesting a slight advantage for Colon de Santa Fe all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Colon de Santa Fe

Colon de Santa Fe 74.55%

Atletico Mitre

Atletico Mitre 70.18%

Average

Average 72.36%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 72.36% of the home team's points and 27.64% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Colon de Santa Fe with an advantage of 223 points against 75. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.95% to 25.05%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Colon de Santa Fe 223
Atletico Mitre 75

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.25% with a coefficient of 3.54. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.74, and for the away team's victory it is 7.06. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 80.25%, and the away team's victory - 19.75%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Colon de Santa Fe 80.25%
Atletico Mitre 19.75%

Our calculation

Colon de Santa Fe 74.95%
Atletico Mitre 25.05%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Atletico Mitre's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.27%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.06, while in reality, it should be 5.56.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.74

3.54

7.06

Our calculation

1.86

3.54

5.56

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

7.06

Our prediction statistics

2024 August

QUANTITY 1356

ROI +8.42%

EARNINGS +$11416

2024 July

QUANTITY 1211

ROI +7.75%

EARNINGS +$9384

5 August 2024 - 11 August 2024

QUANTITY 346

ROI +3.37%

EARNINGS +$1166

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