Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC prediction

Chiangrai United

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Thailand. League 1

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Rayong FC

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Chiangrai United

For Chiangrai United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Chiangrai United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

48 Bangkok United

2:3

+53

02/03

Home

38 Ratchaburi Dragons

0:1

+23

23/02

Away

29 Lamphun Warriors

0:1

+33

15/02

Home

29 Uthai Thani

1:0

+34

08/02

Away

34 Muang Thong United

1:2

+34

02/02

Home

20 Nakhon Pathom United

3:0

+70

26/01

Away

31 Prachuap

0:2

+5

18/01

Home

38 BG Pathum United

1:0

+43

Rayong FC

Similarly, for Rayong FC, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

31 Sukhothai

2:1

+38

01/03

Away

22 Nong Bua Pitchaya

1:1

+31

22/02

Home

38 Ratchaburi Dragons

1:4

+2

17/02

Home

29 Lamphun Warriors

2:3

+14

07/02

Away

48 Bangkok United

2:2

+56

01/02

Home

29 Uthai Thani

2:3

+14

25/01

Away

24 Nakhon Ratchasima Korat

3:3

+28

19/01

Home

31 Prachuap

3:2

+26

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 295 points to the home team and 209 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Chiangrai United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Chiangrai United 295
Rayong FC 209

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.62% of victories for the team Chiangrai United occurred in home matches. For the team Rayong FC this indicator is 64.82%. On average, this equates to 64.72%, suggesting a slight advantage for Chiangrai United all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Chiangrai United

Chiangrai United 64.62%

Rayong FC

Rayong FC 64.82%

Average

Average 64.72%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.72% of the home team's points and 35.29% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chiangrai United with an advantage of 191 points against 74. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.16% to 27.84%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Chiangrai United 191
Rayong FC 74

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 33% with a coefficient of 3.03. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.59, and for the away team's victory it is 3.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 57.71%, and the away team's victory - 42.29%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Chiangrai United 57.71%
Rayong FC 42.29%

Our calculation

Chiangrai United 72.16%
Rayong FC 27.84%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Chiangrai United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.59, while in reality, it should be 2.07.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.59

3.03

3.53

Our calculation

2.07

3.03

5.36

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

2.59

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1635

ROI +9.07%

EARNINGS +$14830

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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