Celtic vs Rangers prediction

Celtic

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Scotland. Premiership

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Rangers

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Celtic and Rangers. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Celtic

For Celtic, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Celtic conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

01/03

Away

28 St Mirren

5:2

+174

25/02

Home

19 Aberdeen

5:1

+79

22/02

Away

40 Hibernian

1:2

+37

15/02

Home

28 Dundee United

3:0

+112

05/02

Home

21 Dundee

6:0

+87

02/02

Away

25 Motherwell

3:1

+78

14/01

Away

21 Dundee

3:3

+20

11/01

Away

30 Ross County

4:1

+133

Rangers

Similarly, for Rangers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

01/03

Home

25 Motherwell

1:2

+19

26/02

Away

24 Kilmarnock

4:2

+100

22/02

Home

28 St Mirren

0:2

+3

16/02

Away

33 Hearts

3:1

+114

02/02

Home

30 Ross County

4:0

+116

26/01

Away

28 Dundee United

3:1

+83

15/01

Home

19 Aberdeen

3:0

+57

12/01

Home

19 St Johnstone

3:1

+38

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 721 points to the home team and 530 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Celtic) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Celtic 721
Rangers 530

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.19% of victories for the team Celtic occurred in home matches. For the team Rangers this indicator is 57.38%. On average, this equates to 59.29%, suggesting a slight advantage for Celtic all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Celtic

Celtic 61.19%

Rangers

Rangers 57.38%

Average

Average 59.29%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.29% of the home team's points and 40.71% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Celtic with an advantage of 428 points against 216. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.47% to 33.53%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Celtic 428
Rangers 216

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.28% with a coefficient of 4.7. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.64, and for the away team's victory it is 5.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.7%, and the away team's victory - 22.3%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Celtic 77.7%
Rangers 22.3%

Our calculation

Celtic 66.47%
Rangers 33.53%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Rangers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.5%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.7, while in reality, it should be 3.79.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.64

4.7

5.7

Our calculation

1.91

4.7

3.79

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

5.7

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1635

ROI +9.07%

EARNINGS +$14830

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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