For Caykur Rizespor, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Caykur Rizespor conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Away
26 Antalyaspor
1:2
+34
02/03
Home
23 Alanyaspor
3:1
+43
22/02
Away
40 Samsunspor
3:2
+102
17/02
Home
51 Galatasaray
1:2
+28
09/02
Away
30 Kasimpasa
2:3
+29
02/02
Away
52 Fenerbahce
2:3
+48
26/01
Home
10 Adana Demirspor
3:2
+10
18/01
Away
29 Istanbul Basaksehir
0:2
+4
Similarly, for Bodrumspor, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
07/03
Home
30 Kasimpasa
1:0
+47
01/03
Away
10 Adana Demirspor
0:0
+14
21/02
Home
16 Hatayspor
1:0
+18
15/02
Away
29 Istanbul Basaksehir
1:0
+61
10/02
Home
30 Goztepe
0:0
+21
31/01
Away
21 Konyaspor
1:3
+3
26/01
Home
36 Eyupspor
0:1
+19
18/01
Away
36 Gazisehir Gaziantep
0:0
+39
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 299 points to the home team and 223 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Caykur Rizespor) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 72.31% of victories for the team Caykur Rizespor occurred in home matches. For the team Bodrumspor this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 69.49%, suggesting a slight advantage for Caykur Rizespor all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Caykur Rizespor
Caykur Rizespor 72.31%
Bodrumspor
Bodrumspor 66.67%
Average
Average 69.49%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 69.49% of the home team's points and 30.51% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Caykur Rizespor with an advantage of 208 points against 68. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.38% to 24.62%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.45% with a coefficient of 3.18. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.21, and for the away team's victory it is 4.27. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 65.85%, and the away team's victory - 34.15%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Caykur Rizespor's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.15%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.21, while in reality, it should be 1.94.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.21
3.18
4.27
Our calculation
1.94
3.18
5.93
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.21
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1479
ROI +9.05%
EARNINGS +$13379
Previous week
QUANTITY 609
ROI +11.65%
EARNINGS +$7095
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