Breidablik vs Vikingur Reykjavik prediction

Breidablik

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: Iceland. Premier League

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Vikingur Reykjavik

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Breidablik and Vikingur Reykjavik. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Breidablik

For Breidablik, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Breidablik conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

26/05

Away

32 Fram

4:1

+203

21/05

Home

35 Stjarnan

2:1

+50

12/05

Away

12 Fylkir

3:0

+66

06/05

Home

40 Valur

2:3

+25

28/04

Away

29 KR Reykjavik

3:2

+53

21/04

Away

57 Vikingur Reykjavik

1:4

+5

13/04

Home

18 Vestri

4:0

+64

08/04

Home

34 Hafnarfjordur

2:0

+64

Vikingur Reykjavik

Similarly, for Vikingur Reykjavik, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

25/05

Away

30 Akranes

1:0

+66

20/05

Away

18 Vestri

4:1

+118

12/05

Home

34 Hafnarfjordur

2:0

+77

05/05

Away

19 HK Kopavogur

1:3

+3

28/04

Home

14 KA Akureyri

4:2

+31

21/04

Home

49 Breidablik

4:1

+173

15/04

Away

32 Fram

1:0

+60

06/04

Home

35 Stjarnan

2:0

+63

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 530 points to the home team and 591 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Breidablik) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Breidablik 530
Vikingur Reykjavik 591

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.56% of victories for the team Breidablik occurred in home matches. For the team Vikingur Reykjavik this indicator is 59.09%. On average, this equates to 57.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Breidablik all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Breidablik

Breidablik 55.56%

Vikingur Reykjavik

Vikingur Reykjavik 59.09%

Average

Average 57.32%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.32% of the home team's points and 42.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Breidablik with an advantage of 304 points against 252. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.62% to 45.38%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Breidablik 304
Vikingur Reykjavik 252

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.88% with a coefficient of 4.02. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.75, and for the away team's victory it is 2.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.39%, and the away team's victory - 51.61%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Breidablik 48.39%
Vikingur Reykjavik 51.61%

Our calculation

Breidablik 54.62%
Vikingur Reykjavik 45.38%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Breidablik's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.52%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.75, while in reality, it should be 2.44.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.75

4.02

2.58

Our calculation

2.44

4.02

2.93

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

2.75

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

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