For Atletico Mitre, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atletico Mitre conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
22/07
Away
27 Atlanta
0:0
+39
14/07
Home
24 Defensores Unidos
1:0
+21
06/07
Away
34 Deportivo Madryn
0:1
+38
30/06
Home
8 Atletico de Rafaela
2:0
+18
23/06
Away
46 San Telmo
0:0
+61
09/06
Away
24 Chaco For Ever
1:1
+31
02/06
Home
32 Defensores de Belgrano
2:0
+61
26/05
Away
23 Almagro
0:0
+26
Similarly, for Almirante Brown, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
37 Aldosivi
1:0
+64
14/07
Away
33 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1:0
+70
07/07
Home
36 Colon de Santa Fe
0:0
+26
30/06
Away
27 Tristan Suarez
2:2
+33
25/06
Away
27 Atlanta
0:1
+23
09/06
Away
24 Defensores Unidos
1:0
+51
02/06
Home
34 Deportivo Madryn
0:1
+18
26/05
Away
8 Atletico de Rafaela
2:1
+14
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 296 points to the home team and 299 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atletico Mitre) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 70.18% of victories for the team Atletico Mitre occurred in home matches. For the team Almirante Brown this indicator is 58.49%. On average, this equates to 64.33%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atletico Mitre all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Atletico Mitre
Atletico Mitre 70.18%
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown 58.49%
Average
Average 64.33%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.33% of the home team's points and 35.67% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atletico Mitre with an advantage of 190 points against 107. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 64.08% to 35.92%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 32.05% with a coefficient of 3.12. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.02, and for the away team's victory it is 5.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.89%, and the away team's victory - 27.11%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Almirante Brown's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.42, while in reality, it should be 4.1.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.02
3.12
5.42
Our calculation
2.3
3.12
4.1
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.42
2024 June
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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