Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid prediction

Atletico Madrid

For Atletico Madrid, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atletico Madrid conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Valladolid

Similarly, for Valladolid, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 394 points to the home team and 123 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atletico Madrid) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.06% of victories for the team Atletico Madrid occurred in home matches. For the team Valladolid this indicator is 67.69%. On average, this equates to 61.88%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atletico Madrid all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.88% of the home team's points and 38.12% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atletico Madrid with an advantage of 244 points against 47. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 83.94% to 16.06%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 9.86% with a coefficient of 10.14. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.15, and for the away team's victory it is 33.44. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 96.68%, and the away team's victory - 3.32%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Valladolid's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 33.44, while in reality, it should be 6.91.

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.