Atlas vs America prediction

Atlas

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Mexico. Primera Division

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America

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Atlas and America. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Atlas

For Atlas, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atlas conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

10/03

Away

14 Tijuana

4:3

+36

03/03

Home

17 Atletico San Luis

3:1

+43

24/02

Away

14 Santos Laguna

0:2

+3

19/02

Home

37 Necaxa

0:4

+2

16/02

Home

17 Puebla

3:2

+25

09/02

Away

42 Tigres

1:2

+39

02/02

Away

33 Pachuca

0:0

+31

30/01

Home

32 Monterrey

3:3

+25

America

Similarly, for America, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

09/03

Away

28 Guadalajara

0:0

+41

02/03

Home

42 Toluca

3:0

+149

23/02

Away

27 UNAM

2:0

+108

20/02

Home

43 Leon

1:1

+33

15/02

Home

37 Necaxa

2:3

+21

08/02

Away

17 Puebla

2:1

+31

02/02

Home

31 Juarez

4:0

+108

29/01

Home

17 Atletico San Luis

3:0

+46

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 204 points to the home team and 537 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atlas) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Atlas 204
America 537

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Atlas occurred in home matches. For the team America this indicator is 64.29%. On average, this equates to 60.72%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atlas all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Atlas

Atlas 57.14%

America

America 64.29%

Average

Average 60.72%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.72% of the home team's points and 39.29% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is America with an advantage of 211 points against 124. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.05% to 36.95%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Atlas 124
America 211

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.45% with a coefficient of 3.93. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.49, and for the away team's victory it is 1.91. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 29.88%, and the away team's victory - 70.12%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Atlas 29.88%
America 70.12%

Our calculation

Atlas 36.95%
America 63.05%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Atlas's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.49, while in reality, it should be 3.63.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

4.49

3.93

1.91

Our calculation

3.63

3.93

2.13

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Home Win

4.49

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1475

ROI +9.14%

EARNINGS +$13487

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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