For Arsenal Sarandi, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Arsenal Sarandi conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
36 San Miguel
0:3
+4
14/07
Home
32 Ferro Carril Oeste
0:0
+24
07/07
Away
33 Deportivo Maipu
0:1
+39
30/06
Home
31 Gimnasia de Jujuy
0:1
+12
23/06
Away
19 Atletico Guemes
1:0
+42
09/06
Away
23 Alvarado
1:2
+23
31/05
Home
31 Racing Cordoba
0:2
+2
26/05
Away
26 Patronato
0:0
+29
Similarly, for Quilmes, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Home
38 San Martin de Tucuman
1:2
+23
13/07
Away
25 Chacarita Juniors
4:0
+176
07/07
Home
30 Estudiantes Caseros
1:0
+38
02/07
Away
23 Talleres Remedios
0:1
+19
22/06
Away
34 Temperley
0:1
+34
08/06
Away
36 San Miguel
0:1
+30
03/06
Home
32 Ferro Carril Oeste
1:4
+2
26/05
Away
33 Deportivo Maipu
1:1
+36
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 176 points to the home team and 359 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Arsenal Sarandi) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 70.49% of victories for the team Arsenal Sarandi occurred in home matches. For the team Quilmes this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 64.19%, suggesting a slight advantage for Arsenal Sarandi all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi 70.49%
Quilmes
Quilmes 57.9%
Average
Average 64.19%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.19% of the home team's points and 35.81% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Quilmes with an advantage of 129 points against 113. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.29% to 46.71%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 33.22% with a coefficient of 3.01. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.42, and for the away team's victory it is 2.67. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 43.85%, and the away team's victory - 56.15%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Arsenal Sarandi's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.66%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.42, while in reality, it should be 3.21.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.42
3.01
2.67
Our calculation
3.21
3.01
2.81
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.42
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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