For Altona Magic, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Altona Magic conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/07
Away
34 Melbourne Knights
1:2
+34
14/07
Away
19 St Albans Saints
2:3
+18
06/07
Home
47 Avondale FC
1:0
+73
29/06
Home
29 Port Melbourne Sharks
1:0
+45
21/06
Away
48 South Melbourne
0:4
+2
15/06
Home
20 Green Gully
0:0
+16
08/06
Away
27 Dandenong Thunder
4:0
+121
01/06
Home
43 Oakleigh Cannons
0:2
+5
Similarly, for Moreland City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
40 Heidelberg United
2:3
+29
13/07
Away
15 Manningham United Blues
3:3
+18
06/07
Home
44 Hume City
0:2
+6
28/06
Away
30 Dandenong City
1:7
+2
21/06
Away
34 Melbourne Knights
0:6
+2
15/06
Home
19 St Albans Saints
0:1
+11
08/06
Away
47 Avondale FC
1:5
+2
01/06
Home
29 Port Melbourne Sharks
1:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 314 points to the home team and 89 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Altona Magic) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.8% of victories for the team Altona Magic occurred in home matches. For the team Moreland City this indicator is 60.87%. On average, this equates to 57.83%, suggesting a slight advantage for Altona Magic all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Altona Magic
Altona Magic 54.8%
Moreland City
Moreland City 60.87%
Average
Average 57.83%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.83% of the home team's points and 42.17% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Altona Magic with an advantage of 182 points against 38. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 82.85% to 17.15%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.92% with a coefficient of 4.18. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.03, and for the away team's victory it is 3.74. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 64.88%, and the away team's victory - 35.13%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Altona Magic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.03, while in reality, it should be 1.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.03
4.18
3.74
Our calculation
1.59
4.18
7.66
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.03
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. Victoria
QUANTITY 254
ROI +18.41%
EARNINGS +$4677
USA. USL. Championship
Uruguay. Primera Division
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