Al Fujairah vs Al Dhaid prediction

Al Fujairah

Match start date: May 30, 2024

VS

Tournament: UAE. 1st Division

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Al Dhaid

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Al Fujairah and Al Dhaid. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Al Fujairah

For Al Fujairah, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Al Fujairah conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

26/05

Away

48 Dibba Al Fujairah

0:2

+9

04/05

Away

19 Masfut

0:0

+23

27/04

Home

31 Masafi

3:3

+28

21/04

Away

48 Dibba Al-Hisn

2:1

+82

14/04

Home

33 Al Arabi

5:1

+149

05/04

Home

51 Al Urooba

0:1

+34

31/03

Away

24 Al Hamriyah

3:1

+64

24/03

Home

26 Al Jazira Al Hamra

4:1

+83

Al Dhaid

Similarly, for Al Dhaid, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

26/05

Home

19 Masfut

2:2

+22

19/05

Away

31 Masafi

2:1

+63

10/05

Home

48 Dibba Al-Hisn

0:1

+42

03/05

Away

33 Al Arabi

1:3

+5

28/04

Home

24 Al Hamriyah

1:3

+3

21/04

Away

26 Al Jazira Al Hamra

2:3

+23

14/04

Home

28 Al Dhafra

3:2

+36

05/04

Home

3 City FC

2:1

+4

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 471 points to the home team and 198 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Al Fujairah) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Al Fujairah 471
Al Dhaid 198

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.24% of victories for the team Al Fujairah occurred in home matches. For the team Al Dhaid this indicator is 50.88%. On average, this equates to 52.56%, suggesting a slight advantage for Al Fujairah all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Al Fujairah

Al Fujairah 54.24%

Al Dhaid

Al Dhaid 50.88%

Average

Average 52.56%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.56% of the home team's points and 47.44% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Al Fujairah with an advantage of 247 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.51% to 27.49%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Al Fujairah 247
Al Dhaid 94

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.57% with a coefficient of 4.07. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.64. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.43%, and the away team's victory - 28.57%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Al Fujairah 71.43%
Al Dhaid 28.57%

Our calculation

Al Fujairah 72.51%
Al Dhaid 27.49%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Al Fujairah's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.08%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.86, while in reality, it should be 1.83.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.86

4.07

4.64

Our calculation

1.83

4.07

4.82

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

1.86

Our prediction statistics

2024 April

QUANTITY 2867

ROI +7.39%

EARNINGS +$21176

20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024

QUANTITY 564

ROI +4.61%

EARNINGS +$2602

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