For Al Fujairah, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Al Fujairah conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/05
Away
48 Dibba Al Fujairah
0:2
+9
04/05
Away
19 Masfut
0:0
+23
27/04
Home
31 Masafi
3:3
+28
21/04
Away
48 Dibba Al-Hisn
2:1
+82
14/04
Home
33 Al-Arabi
5:1
+149
05/04
Home
51 Al Urooba
0:1
+34
31/03
Away
24 Al Hamriyah
3:1
+64
24/03
Home
26 Al Jazira Al Hamra
4:1
+83
Similarly, for Al Dhaid, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
26/05
Home
19 Masfut
2:2
+22
19/05
Away
31 Masafi
2:1
+63
10/05
Home
48 Dibba Al-Hisn
0:1
+42
03/05
Away
33 Al-Arabi
1:3
+5
28/04
Home
24 Al Hamriyah
1:3
+3
21/04
Away
26 Al Jazira Al Hamra
2:3
+23
14/04
Home
28 Al Dhafra
3:2
+36
05/04
Home
3 City FC
2:1
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 471 points to the home team and 198 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Al Fujairah) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.24% of victories for the team Al Fujairah occurred in home matches. For the team Al Dhaid this indicator is 50.88%. On average, this equates to 52.56%, suggesting a slight advantage for Al Fujairah all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Al Fujairah
Al Fujairah 54.24%
Al Dhaid
Al Dhaid 50.88%
Average
Average 52.56%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.56% of the home team's points and 47.44% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Al Fujairah with an advantage of 247 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.51% to 27.49%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.57% with a coefficient of 4.07. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.64. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.43%, and the away team's victory - 28.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Al Fujairah's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.08%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.86, while in reality, it should be 1.83.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.86
4.07
4.64
Our calculation
1.83
4.07
4.82
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.86
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
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