Adelaide Olympic vs Para Hills Knights prediction

Adelaide Olympic

For Adelaide Olympic, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Adelaide Olympic conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Para Hills Knights

Similarly, for Para Hills Knights, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 268 points to the home team and 286 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Adelaide Olympic) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.38% of victories for the team Adelaide Olympic occurred in home matches. For the team Para Hills Knights this indicator is 51.61%. On average, this equates to 54.5%, suggesting a slight advantage for Adelaide Olympic all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.5% of the home team's points and 45.51% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Adelaide Olympic with an advantage of 146 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.86% to 47.14%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.53% with a coefficient of 4.25. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.31, and for the away team's victory it is 3.01. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.55%, and the away team's victory - 43.45%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Para Hills Knights's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.27%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.01, while in reality, it should be 2.77.

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.