Venlo vs Excelsior prediction

Venlo

For Venlo, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Venlo conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Excelsior

Similarly, for Excelsior, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 197 points to the home team and 486 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Venlo) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.84% of victories for the team Venlo occurred in home matches. For the team Excelsior this indicator is 63.64%. On average, this equates to 59.24%, suggesting a slight advantage for Venlo all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.24% of the home team's points and 40.76% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Excelsior with an advantage of 198 points against 116. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.98% to 37.02%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.98% with a coefficient of 4.55. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.4, and for the away team's victory it is 1.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 23.72%, and the away team's victory - 76.28%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Venlo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.21%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.4, while in reality, it should be 3.46.

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.