For Valur, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Valur conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
47 Vikingur Reykjavik
2:3
+52
25/08
Home
20 Vestri
3:1
+46
19/08
Away
29 Hafnarfjordur
2:2
+37
15/08
Home
46 Breidablik
0:2
+5
11/08
Home
20 HK Kopavogur
5:1
+75
06/08
Away
27 KA Akureyri
0:1
+25
28/07
Away
26 Fram
1:4
+2
06/07
Home
19 Fylkir
4:0
+63
Similarly, for KR Reykjavik, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/09
Home
47 Vikingur Reykjavik
0:3
+3
01/09
Home
33 Akranes
4:2
+90
22/08
Away
20 HK Kopavogur
2:3
+20
17/08
Away
20 Vestri
0:2
+3
12/08
Home
29 Hafnarfjordur
1:0
+37
29/07
Home
27 KA Akureyri
2:2
+19
21/07
Away
46 Breidablik
2:4
+7
11/07
Away
26 Fram
0:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 306 points to the home team and 200 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Valur) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.91% of victories for the team Valur occurred in home matches. For the team KR Reykjavik this indicator is 58.62%. On average, this equates to 60.26%, suggesting a slight advantage for Valur all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Valur
Valur 61.91%
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik 58.62%
Average
Average 60.26%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.26% of the home team's points and 39.74% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Valur with an advantage of 184 points against 79. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 69.9% to 30.1%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 19.34% with a coefficient of 5.17. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.63, and for the away team's victory it is 5.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 76.02%, and the away team's victory - 23.98%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of KR Reykjavik's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.17, while in reality, it should be 4.12.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.63
5.17
5.17
Our calculation
1.77
5.17
4.12
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.17
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 664
ROI +4.06%
EARNINGS +$2698
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