Valenciennes vs Nancy prediction

Valenciennes

Match start date: May 9, 2025

VS

Tournament: France. National

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Nancy

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Valenciennes and Nancy. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Valenciennes

For Valenciennes, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Valenciennes conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

02/05

Away

25 Paris 13 Atletico

1:1

+37

25/04

Home

43 Le Mans

0:1

+34

11/04

Home

26 Quevilly

0:0

+24

04/04

Away

27 Bourg-Peronnas

0:1

+26

28/03

Home

35 Boulogne

2:3

+20

21/03

Away

34 Dijon

1:2

+32

14/03

Home

23 Sochaux

1:0

+27

07/03

Away

26 Villefranche

2:0

+76

Nancy

Similarly, for Nancy, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

02/05

Home

17 Nimes

1:0

+23

25/04

Away

26 Orleans

5:1

+168

18/04

Home

32 Aubagne

2:0

+77

11/04

Home

23 Chateauroux

1:0

+37

04/04

Away

25 Paris 13 Atletico

2:2

+29

28/03

Home

43 Le Mans

2:0

+118

14/03

Home

26 Quevilly

4:1

+103

07/03

Away

27 Bourg-Peronnas

0:1

+19

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 276 points to the home team and 575 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Valenciennes) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Valenciennes 276
Nancy 575

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.75% of victories for the team Valenciennes occurred in home matches. For the team Nancy this indicator is 58.33%. On average, this equates to 60.54%, suggesting a slight advantage for Valenciennes all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Valenciennes

Valenciennes 62.75%

Nancy

Nancy 58.33%

Average

Average 60.54%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.54% of the home team's points and 39.46% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Nancy with an advantage of 227 points against 167. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.59% to 42.41%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Valenciennes 167
Nancy 227

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.82% with a coefficient of 3.47. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.73, and for the away team's victory it is 2.26. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.71%, and the away team's victory - 62.3%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Valenciennes 37.71%
Nancy 62.3%

Our calculation

Valenciennes 42.41%
Nancy 57.59%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Valenciennes's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.71%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.73, while in reality, it should be 3.31.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.73

3.47

2.26

Our calculation

3.31

3.47

2.44

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

3.73

Our prediction statistics

2025 April

QUANTITY 3032

ROI +7.49%

EARNINGS +$22715

28 April 2025 - 4 May 2025

QUANTITY 800

ROI +13.5%

EARNINGS +$10803

2025 May

QUANTITY 1412

ROI +6.95%

EARNINGS +$9812

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