For Trofense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Trofense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
27/10
Away
30 Lusitania Lourosa
1:1
+43
06/10
Home
41 Varzim
3:2
+60
28/09
Away
21 Anadia
2:4
+3
15/09
Home
18 Sao Joao Ver
1:1
+15
31/08
Away
43 Fafe
0:1
+32
25/08
Away
15 Sanjoanense
2:0
+44
17/08
Home
13 Vilaverdense
1:0
+17
11/08
Away
45 Amarante
0:1
+31
Similarly, for Amarante, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
02/11
Home
15 Sanjoanense
1:0
+29
27/10
Home
13 Vilaverdense
1:0
+22
06/10
Away
43 Fafe
1:4
+3
29/09
Away
41 Sporting Braga II
0:0
+43
14/09
Home
30 Lusitania Lourosa
1:0
+39
31/08
Away
41 Varzim
3:1
+122
25/08
Home
21 Anadia
0:1
+15
17/08
Away
18 Sao Joao Ver
3:0
+79
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 245 points to the home team and 354 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Trofense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.14% of victories for the team Trofense occurred in home matches. For the team Amarante this indicator is 51.72%. On average, this equates to 53.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Trofense all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Trofense
Trofense 56.14%
Amarante
Amarante 51.72%
Average
Average 53.93%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.93% of the home team's points and 46.07% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Amarante with an advantage of 163 points against 132. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.19% to 44.81%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.24% with a coefficient of 3.42. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.53, and for the away team's victory it is 3.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 55.9%, and the away team's victory - 44.1%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Amarante's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.21, while in reality, it should be 2.56.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.53
3.42
3.21
Our calculation
3.15
3.42
2.56
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.21
2024 October
QUANTITY 2852
ROI +7.78%
EARNINGS +$22186
9 November 2024
QUANTITY 367
ROI +6.56%
EARNINGS +$2406
England. Premier League
2024 © betzax.com