Trofense vs Amarante prediction

Trofense

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: Portugal. Tercera Liga

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Amarante

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Trofense and Amarante. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Trofense

For Trofense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Trofense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

27/10

Away

30 Lusitania Lourosa

1:1

+43

06/10

Home

41 Varzim

3:2

+60

28/09

Away

21 Anadia

2:4

+3

15/09

Home

18 Sao Joao Ver

1:1

+15

31/08

Away

43 Fafe

0:1

+32

25/08

Away

15 Sanjoanense

2:0

+44

17/08

Home

13 Vilaverdense

1:0

+17

11/08

Away

45 Amarante

0:1

+31

Amarante

Similarly, for Amarante, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

02/11

Home

15 Sanjoanense

1:0

+29

27/10

Home

13 Vilaverdense

1:0

+22

06/10

Away

43 Fafe

1:4

+3

29/09

Away

41 Sporting Braga II

0:0

+43

14/09

Home

30 Lusitania Lourosa

1:0

+39

31/08

Away

41 Varzim

3:1

+122

25/08

Home

21 Anadia

0:1

+15

17/08

Away

18 Sao Joao Ver

3:0

+79

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 245 points to the home team and 354 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Trofense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Trofense 245
Amarante 354

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.14% of victories for the team Trofense occurred in home matches. For the team Amarante this indicator is 51.72%. On average, this equates to 53.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Trofense all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Trofense

Trofense 56.14%

Amarante

Amarante 51.72%

Average

Average 53.93%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.93% of the home team's points and 46.07% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Amarante with an advantage of 163 points against 132. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.19% to 44.81%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Trofense 132
Amarante 163

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.24% with a coefficient of 3.42. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.53, and for the away team's victory it is 3.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 55.9%, and the away team's victory - 44.1%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Trofense 55.9%
Amarante 44.1%

Our calculation

Trofense 44.81%
Amarante 55.19%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Amarante's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.21, while in reality, it should be 2.56.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.53

3.42

3.21

Our calculation

3.15

3.42

2.56

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

3.21

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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