For Tigres, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tigres conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Home
23 Queretaro
1:0
+30
02/03
Away
37 Necaxa
2:1
+94
26/02
Home
31 Juarez
0:1
+18
23/02
Away
43 Leon
0:1
+48
16/02
Home
36 Cruz Azul
2:1
+42
09/02
Home
25 Atlas
2:1
+27
02/02
Away
42 Toluca
0:1
+42
29/01
Home
14 Tijuana
4:0
+29
Similarly, for Santos Laguna, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
10/03
Home
43 Leon
2:1
+61
03/03
Away
32 Monterrey
2:4
+6
24/02
Home
25 Atlas
2:0
+63
20/02
Home
36 Cruz Azul
0:1
+24
15/02
Away
23 Mazatlan
1:1
+27
08/02
Away
37 Necaxa
2:3
+34
03/02
Home
17 Puebla
0:2
+2
30/01
Away
31 Juarez
0:1
+25
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 329 points to the home team and 241 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tigres) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 79.37% of victories for the team Tigres occurred in home matches. For the team Santos Laguna this indicator is 63.49%. On average, this equates to 71.43%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tigres all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tigres
Tigres 79.37%
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna 63.49%
Average
Average 71.43%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 71.43% of the home team's points and 28.57% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tigres with an advantage of 235 points against 69. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 77.38% to 22.62%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 15.7% with a coefficient of 6.37. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.33, and for the away team's victory it is 11.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 89.44%, and the away team's victory - 10.56%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Santos Laguna's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.06%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 11.23, while in reality, it should be 5.24.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.33
6.37
11.23
Our calculation
1.53
6.37
5.24
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
11.23
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