For Tabasalu Charma, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tabasalu Charma conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/05
Away
55 Harju JK Laagri
3:4
+56
19/05
Home
41 FC Tallinn
1:2
+32
11/05
Away
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
0:3
+1
04/05
Away
37 Viimsi
0:1
+33
28/04
Home
40 Flora II
2:0
+96
21/04
Away
18 Elva
1:3
+3
14/04
Home
18 Kalev Tallinn II
3:3
+14
07/04
Away
41 FC Tallinn
0:4
+2
Similarly, for Tartu JK Welco Elekter, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
26/05
Away
35 FCI Levadia II
2:2
+46
19/05
Home
13 Paide Linnameeskond II
2:1
+25
11/05
Home
55 Harju JK Laagri
0:2
+7
04/05
Away
40 Flora II
1:1
+45
28/04
Away
18 Kalev Tallinn II
3:0
+92
21/04
Home
35 FCI Levadia II
3:2
+45
13/04
Away
55 Harju JK Laagri
0:0
+54
07/04
Home
37 Viimsi
0:1
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 237 points to the home team and 335 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tabasalu Charma) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.53% of victories for the team Tabasalu Charma occurred in home matches. For the team Tartu JK Welco Elekter this indicator is 56.92%. On average, this equates to 57.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tabasalu Charma all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tabasalu Charma
Tabasalu Charma 57.53%
Tartu JK Welco Elekter
Tartu JK Welco Elekter 56.92%
Average
Average 57.23%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.23% of the home team's points and 42.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tartu JK Welco Elekter with an advantage of 143 points against 136. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.35% to 48.65%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 19.88% with a coefficient of 5.03. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.92, and for the away team's victory it is 1.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 21.09%, and the away team's victory - 78.91%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tabasalu Charma's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 27.56%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.92, while in reality, it should be 2.57.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.92
5.03
1.58
Our calculation
2.57
5.03
2.43
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
5.92
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
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QUANTITY 201
ROI +12.42%
EARNINGS +$2497
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