Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata prediction

Rosario Central

Match start date: Mar 16, 2025

VS

Tournament: Argentina. Primera Division

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Gimnasia La Plata

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Rosario Central and Gimnasia La Plata. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Rosario Central

For Rosario Central, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Rosario Central conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

11/03

Away

28 Talleres de Cordoba

0:0

+41

01/03

Away

43 Boca Juniors

0:1

+52

23/02

Home

16 Sarmiento Junin

1:0

+19

16/02

Away

19 Newells Old Boys

2:1

+39

12/02

Away

26 Deportivo Riestra

0:0

+33

09/02

Home

23 Atletico Tucuman

3:1

+39

02/02

Away

15 San Martin San Juan

0:0

+18

29/01

Home

28 Lanus

2:1

+31

Gimnasia La Plata

Similarly, for Gimnasia La Plata, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

11/03

Home

26 Deportivo Riestra

1:1

+24

02/03

Away

19 Union de Santa Fe

0:1

+21

24/02

Away

23 Atletico Tucuman

1:0

+51

17/02

Home

15 San Martin San Juan

1:0

+20

13/02

Away

28 Lanus

0:0

+29

10/02

Home

29 Godoy Cruz

3:0

+101

03/02

Away

44 Independiente Avellaneda

0:2

+6

29/01

Home

29 San Lorenzo

0:2

+3

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 271 points to the home team and 255 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Rosario Central) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Rosario Central 271
Gimnasia La Plata 255

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.04% of victories for the team Rosario Central occurred in home matches. For the team Gimnasia La Plata this indicator is 55.74%. On average, this equates to 60.89%, suggesting a slight advantage for Rosario Central all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Rosario Central

Rosario Central 66.04%

Gimnasia La Plata

Gimnasia La Plata 55.74%

Average

Average 60.89%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.89% of the home team's points and 39.11% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Rosario Central with an advantage of 165 points against 100. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.39% to 37.61%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Rosario Central 165
Gimnasia La Plata 100

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.21% with a coefficient of 3.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.01, and for the away team's victory it is 5.01. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.43%, and the away team's victory - 28.57%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Rosario Central 71.43%
Gimnasia La Plata 28.57%

Our calculation

Rosario Central 62.39%
Gimnasia La Plata 37.61%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Gimnasia La Plata's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.01, while in reality, it should be 3.81.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.01

3.31

5.01

Our calculation

2.3

3.31

3.81

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

5.01

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1477

ROI +9%

EARNINGS +$13287

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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