For Rosario Central, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Rosario Central conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
11/03
Away
28 Talleres de Cordoba
0:0
+41
01/03
Away
43 Boca Juniors
0:1
+52
23/02
Home
16 Sarmiento Junin
1:0
+19
16/02
Away
19 Newells Old Boys
2:1
+39
12/02
Away
26 Deportivo Riestra
0:0
+33
09/02
Home
23 Atletico Tucuman
3:1
+39
02/02
Away
15 San Martin San Juan
0:0
+18
29/01
Home
28 Lanus
2:1
+31
Similarly, for Gimnasia La Plata, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
11/03
Home
26 Deportivo Riestra
1:1
+24
02/03
Away
19 Union de Santa Fe
0:1
+21
24/02
Away
23 Atletico Tucuman
1:0
+51
17/02
Home
15 San Martin San Juan
1:0
+20
13/02
Away
28 Lanus
0:0
+29
10/02
Home
29 Godoy Cruz
3:0
+101
03/02
Away
44 Independiente Avellaneda
0:2
+6
29/01
Home
29 San Lorenzo
0:2
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 271 points to the home team and 255 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Rosario Central) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.04% of victories for the team Rosario Central occurred in home matches. For the team Gimnasia La Plata this indicator is 55.74%. On average, this equates to 60.89%, suggesting a slight advantage for Rosario Central all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Rosario Central
Rosario Central 66.04%
Gimnasia La Plata
Gimnasia La Plata 55.74%
Average
Average 60.89%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.89% of the home team's points and 39.11% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Rosario Central with an advantage of 165 points against 100. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.39% to 37.61%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.21% with a coefficient of 3.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.01, and for the away team's victory it is 5.01. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.43%, and the away team's victory - 28.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Gimnasia La Plata's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.01, while in reality, it should be 3.81.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.01
3.31
5.01
Our calculation
2.3
3.31
3.81
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.01
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