For Real Pilar, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Real Pilar conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
12/09
Away
27 Leandro N. Alem
1:0
+55
07/09
Home
28 Central Ballester
3:0
+146
03/09
Away
37 Claypole
1:0
+69
17/08
Away
15 Lugano
4:0
+74
13/08
Home
29 Puerto Nuevo
3:0
+132
09/08
Away
39 Central Cordoba de Rosario
1:1
+39
03/08
Home
23 Mercedes
1:0
+28
27/07
Away
35 Deportivo Muniz
1:1
+31
Similarly, for Victoriano Arenas, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
11/09
Home
31 Argentino de Rosario
1:3
+4
08/09
Away
28 Defensores Cambaceres
0:2
+5
03/09
Home
34 Atlas
0:2
+4
23/08
Away
39 Deportivo Espanol
0:0
+47
18/08
Home
30 Centro Espanol
1:1
+20
10/08
Away
27 Leandro N. Alem
0:3
+2
03/08
Home
28 Central Ballester
1:1
+20
28/07
Away
37 Claypole
1:0
+63
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 574 points to the home team and 165 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Real Pilar) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Real Pilar occurred in home matches. For the team Victoriano Arenas this indicator is 64.82%. On average, this equates to 57.41%, suggesting a slight advantage for Real Pilar all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Real Pilar
Real Pilar 50%
Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas 64.82%
Average
Average 57.41%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.41% of the home team's points and 42.59% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Real Pilar with an advantage of 329 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 82.4% to 17.6%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.7% with a coefficient of 3.61. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.84, and for the away team's victory it is 5.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 75.01%, and the away team's victory - 24.99%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Real Pilar's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.19%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.84, while in reality, it should be 1.68.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.84
3.61
5.53
Our calculation
1.68
3.61
7.86
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.84
2024 August
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