For New Mexico United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team New Mexico United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Away
27 Detroit City
0:1
+29
07/09
Home
5 Miami FC
1:0
+8
01/09
Away
34 Oakland Roots
0:1
+34
25/08
Away
40 Colorado Springs Switchbacks
1:0
+93
18/08
Home
16 Monterey Bay
3:2
+19
15/08
Home
23 Tulsa Roughnecks
3:3
+17
12/08
Away
37 Indy Eleven
3:1
+106
04/08
Home
47 Louisville City
0:1
+22
Similarly, for Sacramento Republic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Home
28 Phoenix Rising
2:0
+64
08/09
Away
38 Charleston Battery
1:2
+41
25/08
Home
20 San Antonio
1:0
+24
15/08
Home
20 El Paso Locomotive
2:0
+57
11/08
Away
47 Louisville City
3:4
+43
04/08
Home
26 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0:1
+15
28/07
Away
27 Detroit City
1:0
+45
21/07
Away
34 Oakland Roots
5:2
+149
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 326 points to the home team and 439 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (New Mexico United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.67% of victories for the team New Mexico United occurred in home matches. For the team Sacramento Republic this indicator is 61.02%. On average, this equates to 63.84%, suggesting a slight advantage for New Mexico United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
New Mexico United
New Mexico United 66.67%
Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic 61.02%
Average
Average 63.84%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.84% of the home team's points and 36.16% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is New Mexico United with an advantage of 208 points against 159. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.77% to 43.23%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.94% with a coefficient of 3.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.46, and for the away team's victory it is 3.39. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 57.92%, and the away team's victory - 42.08%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sacramento Republic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.78%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.39, while in reality, it should be 3.3.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.46
3.34
3.39
Our calculation
2.51
3.34
3.3
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.39
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
USA. USL. Championship
QUANTITY 181
ROI +5.46%
EARNINGS +$988
Costa Rica. Primera Division
2024 © betzax.com