For Necaxa Women, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Necaxa Women conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/09
Away
45 Guadalajara Women
1:3
+8
04/09
Away
29 Cruz Azul Women
1:1
+34
30/08
Away
62 Tigres Women
0:6
+3
27/08
Home
29 Atlas Women
0:1
+22
17/08
Home
8 Mazatlan Women
1:2
+6
13/08
Away
43 America Women
0:4
+2
06/08
Home
59 Monterrey Women
0:4
+2
29/07
Home
3 Santos Laguna Women
1:0
+4
Similarly, for Juarez Women, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/09
Home
62 Pachuca Women
0:0
+57
04/09
Away
29 Atlas Women
0:1
+29
30/08
Away
43 America Women
0:0
+55
26/08
Home
36 Tijuana Women
4:0
+166
17/08
Home
59 Monterrey Women
0:1
+35
04/08
Home
3 Santos Laguna Women
3:1
+7
27/07
Away
43 UNAM Women
2:3
+36
20/07
Away
21 Leon Women
0:1
+16
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 81 points to the home team and 401 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Necaxa Women) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.41% of victories for the team Necaxa Women occurred in home matches. For the team Juarez Women this indicator is 59.02%. On average, this equates to 56.71%, suggesting a slight advantage for Necaxa Women all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Necaxa Women
Necaxa Women 54.41%
Juarez Women
Juarez Women 59.02%
Average
Average 56.71%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.71% of the home team's points and 43.29% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Juarez Women with an advantage of 174 points against 46. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.06% to 20.94%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 14.58% with a coefficient of 6.86. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 12.45, and for the away team's victory it is 1.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 9.41%, and the away team's victory - 90.59%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Necaxa Women's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.64%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 12.45, while in reality, it should be 5.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
12.45
6.86
1.29
Our calculation
5.59
6.86
1.48
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
12.45
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 664
ROI +4.06%
EARNINGS +$2698
17 September 2024
QUANTITY 19
ROI +24%
EARNINGS +$456
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