Milan vs Fiorentina prediction

Milan

For Milan, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Milan conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Fiorentina

Similarly, for Fiorentina, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 263 points to the home team and 489 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Milan) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.29% of victories for the team Milan occurred in home matches. For the team Fiorentina this indicator is 69.64%. On average, this equates to 65.47%, suggesting a slight advantage for Milan all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.47% of the home team's points and 34.53% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Milan with an advantage of 172 points against 169. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.51% to 49.49%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.25% with a coefficient of 3.81. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.92, and for the away team's victory it is 4.6. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.51%, and the away team's victory - 29.49%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fiorentina's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.52%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.6, while in reality, it should be 2.74.

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.