For Leganes, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Leganes conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Away
30 Celta de Vigo
1:2
+31
02/03
Home
31 Getafe
1:0
+53
23/02
Away
32 Real Sociedad
0:3
+3
15/02
Home
19 Alaves
3:3
+16
09/02
Away
24 Valencia
0:2
+3
31/01
Home
28 Rayo Vallecano
0:1
+19
26/01
Away
39 Athletic Bilbao
0:0
+41
18/01
Home
43 Atletico Madrid
1:0
+50
Similarly, for Betis, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/03
Home
23 Las Palmas
1:0
+37
01/03
Home
44 Real Madrid
2:1
+70
23/02
Away
31 Getafe
2:1
+62
16/02
Home
32 Real Sociedad
3:0
+140
08/02
Away
30 Celta de Vigo
2:3
+27
02/02
Home
39 Athletic Bilbao
2:2
+26
25/01
Away
27 Mallorca
1:0
+46
18/01
Home
19 Alaves
1:3
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 216 points to the home team and 410 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Leganes) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.7% of victories for the team Leganes occurred in home matches. For the team Betis this indicator is 56.9%. On average, this equates to 55.3%, suggesting a slight advantage for Leganes all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Leganes
Leganes 53.7%
Betis
Betis 56.9%
Average
Average 55.3%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.3% of the home team's points and 44.7% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Betis with an advantage of 183 points against 120. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.51% to 39.49%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.17% with a coefficient of 3.55. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.97, and for the away team's victory it is 2.14. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 35.04%, and the away team's victory - 64.96%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Leganes's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.87%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.97, while in reality, it should be 3.53.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.97
3.55
2.14
Our calculation
3.53
3.55
2.3
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.97
2025 February
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2025 March
QUANTITY 1479
ROI +9.05%
EARNINGS +$13379
Previous week
QUANTITY 609
ROI +11.65%
EARNINGS +$7095
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