For Huracan, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Huracan conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/03
Away
33 Racing de Avellaneda
1:0
+79
03/03
Away
24 Velez Sarsfield
2:0
+99
24/02
Home
30 San Lorenzo
2:0
+74
17/02
Home
19 Union de Santa Fe
1:0
+23
13/02
Away
33 Argentinos Juniors
1:1
+44
08/02
Home
39 Tigre
2:0
+85
03/02
Away
43 Boca Juniors
1:2
+39
30/01
Home
36 Estudiantes de La Plata
0:0
+24
Similarly, for Independiente Rivadavia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
11/03
Home
19 Union de Santa Fe
2:0
+45
02/03
Home
28 Lanus
1:1
+25
25/02
Away
33 Argentinos Juniors
0:0
+47
16/02
Home
39 Tigre
1:4
+3
12/02
Away
43 Boca Juniors
0:2
+8
08/02
Home
36 Estudiantes de La Plata
2:2
+27
04/02
Away
23 Belgrano
3:0
+111
29/01
Home
27 Barracas Central
0:0
+18
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 469 points to the home team and 284 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Huracan) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.16% of victories for the team Huracan occurred in home matches. For the team Independiente Rivadavia this indicator is 60%. On average, this equates to 61.58%, suggesting a slight advantage for Huracan all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Huracan
Huracan 63.16%
Independiente Rivadavia
Independiente Rivadavia 60%
Average
Average 61.58%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.58% of the home team's points and 38.42% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Huracan with an advantage of 289 points against 109. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.59% to 27.41%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.55% with a coefficient of 3.63. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.78, and for the away team's victory it is 6.12. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.44%, and the away team's victory - 22.56%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Independiente Rivadavia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.92%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.12, while in reality, it should be 5.03.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.78
3.63
6.12
Our calculation
1.9
3.63
5.03
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
6.12
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1477
ROI +9%
EARNINGS +$13287
Previous week
QUANTITY 609
ROI +11.65%
EARNINGS +$7095
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