Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli prediction

Holstein Kiel

For Holstein Kiel, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Holstein Kiel conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

St Pauli

Similarly, for St Pauli, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 141 points to the home team and 188 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Holstein Kiel) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 46.27% of victories for the team Holstein Kiel occurred in home matches. For the team St Pauli this indicator is 55.74%. On average, this equates to 51%, suggesting a slight advantage for Holstein Kiel all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51% of the home team's points and 49% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is St Pauli with an advantage of 92 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.27% to 43.73%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.32% with a coefficient of 3.66. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.64, and for the away team's victory it is 2.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.86%, and the away team's victory - 62.14%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Holstein Kiel's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.96%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.64, while in reality, it should be 3.15.

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.