For Hammarby, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hammarby conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
24 Goteborg
1:0
+51
26/08
Home
35 GAIS
0:0
+28
17/08
Away
21 Varnamo
3:0
+109
12/08
Home
24 Brommapojkarna
3:3
+20
04/08
Away
23 Kalmar
4:1
+127
28/07
Home
33 Mjallby
3:0
+119
20/07
Away
24 Brommapojkarna
2:0
+71
15/07
Home
24 Goteborg
0:1
+13
Similarly, for Norrkoping, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
01/09
Home
36 Hacken
3:3
+32
26/08
Home
33 Mjallby
1:2
+27
17/08
Away
46 Malmo
1:2
+44
10/08
Home
19 Vasteras
2:1
+28
03/08
Away
35 GAIS
1:0
+67
27/07
Home
23 Kalmar
2:0
+51
21/07
Home
20 Halmstads
1:0
+24
14/07
Away
19 Vasteras
1:2
+14
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 537 points to the home team and 288 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hammarby) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.9% of victories for the team Hammarby occurred in home matches. For the team Norrkoping this indicator is 57.14%. On average, this equates to 60.02%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hammarby all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Hammarby
Hammarby 62.9%
Norrkoping
Norrkoping 57.14%
Average
Average 60.02%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.02% of the home team's points and 39.98% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Hammarby with an advantage of 323 points against 115. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.7% to 26.3%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 20.62% with a coefficient of 4.85. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.58, and for the away team's victory it is 6.17. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 79.59%, and the away team's victory - 20.41%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Norrkoping's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.35%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.17, while in reality, it should be 4.79.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.58
4.85
6.17
Our calculation
1.71
4.85
4.79
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
6.17
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