Girona vs Valencia prediction

Girona

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: Spain. Primera Division

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Valencia

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Girona and Valencia. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Girona

For Girona, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Girona conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

10/03

Away

22 Espanyol

1:1

+33

01/03

Home

28 Celta de Vigo

2:2

+26

23/02

Away

44 Real Madrid

0:2

+8

14/02

Home

31 Getafe

1:2

+21

08/02

Away

39 Athletic Bilbao

0:3

+4

03/02

Home

22 Las Palmas

2:1

+28

26/01

Away

28 Rayo Vallecano

1:2

+22

18/01

Home

30 Sevilla

1:2

+17

Valencia

Similarly, for Valencia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

12 Valladolid

2:1

+17

02/03

Away

25 Osasuna

3:3

+31

22/02

Home

43 Atletico Madrid

0:3

+3

15/02

Away

36 Villarreal

1:1

+39

09/02

Home

22 Leganes

2:0

+58

02/02

Home

28 Celta de Vigo

2:1

+38

26/01

Away

44 Barcelona

1:7

+2

19/01

Home

32 Real Sociedad

1:0

+45

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 157 points to the home team and 232 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Girona) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Girona 157
Valencia 232

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Girona occurred in home matches. For the team Valencia this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 58.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Girona all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Girona

Girona 60%

Valencia

Valencia 57.9%

Average

Average 58.95%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.95% of the home team's points and 41.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Valencia with an advantage of 95 points against 93. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.75% to 49.25%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Girona 93
Valencia 95

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.32% with a coefficient of 3.66. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.04, and for the away team's victory it is 4.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.5%, and the away team's victory - 32.5%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Girona 67.5%
Valencia 32.5%

Our calculation

Girona 49.25%
Valencia 50.75%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Valencia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17.36%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.23, while in reality, it should be 2.71.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.04

3.66

4.23

Our calculation

2.79

3.66

2.71

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

4.23

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1475

ROI +9.14%

EARNINGS +$13487

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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