For Girona, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Girona conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
10/03
Away
22 Espanyol
1:1
+33
01/03
Home
28 Celta de Vigo
2:2
+26
23/02
Away
44 Real Madrid
0:2
+8
14/02
Home
31 Getafe
1:2
+21
08/02
Away
39 Athletic Bilbao
0:3
+4
03/02
Home
22 Las Palmas
2:1
+28
26/01
Away
28 Rayo Vallecano
1:2
+22
18/01
Home
30 Sevilla
1:2
+17
Similarly, for Valencia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/03
Home
12 Valladolid
2:1
+17
02/03
Away
25 Osasuna
3:3
+31
22/02
Home
43 Atletico Madrid
0:3
+3
15/02
Away
36 Villarreal
1:1
+39
09/02
Home
22 Leganes
2:0
+58
02/02
Home
28 Celta de Vigo
2:1
+38
26/01
Away
44 Barcelona
1:7
+2
19/01
Home
32 Real Sociedad
1:0
+45
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 157 points to the home team and 232 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Girona) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Girona occurred in home matches. For the team Valencia this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 58.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Girona all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Girona
Girona 60%
Valencia
Valencia 57.9%
Average
Average 58.95%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.95% of the home team's points and 41.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Valencia with an advantage of 95 points against 93. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.75% to 49.25%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.32% with a coefficient of 3.66. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.04, and for the away team's victory it is 4.23. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.5%, and the away team's victory - 32.5%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Valencia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17.36%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.23, while in reality, it should be 2.71.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.04
3.66
4.23
Our calculation
2.79
3.66
2.71
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.23
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