For Edinburgh City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Edinburgh City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
05/10
Home
19 Stranraer
1:2
+14
28/09
Away
39 Elgin City
3:3
+54
14/09
Away
19 Clyde
1:1
+22
31/08
Home
39 Peterhead
0:4
+2
24/08
Away
19 Forfar Athletic
3:0
+93
17/08
Home
24 Bonnyrigg Rose
2:2
+21
10/08
Away
51 East Fife
0:2
+7
03/08
Home
35 Stirling Albion
1:2
+19
Similarly, for Spartans, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
05/10
Away
19 Clyde
1:1
+23
28/09
Home
51 East Fife
0:1
+38
17/09
Away
39 Elgin City
1:1
+50
14/09
Home
19 Forfar Athletic
1:0
+29
31/08
Away
35 Stirling Albion
0:1
+28
24/08
Home
39 Peterhead
0:0
+32
10/08
Home
24 Bonnyrigg Rose
2:0
+62
03/08
Away
19 Stranraer
2:2
+18
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 232 points to the home team and 281 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Edinburgh City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.75% of victories for the team Edinburgh City occurred in home matches. For the team Spartans this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 50.37%, suggesting a slight advantage for Edinburgh City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City 50.75%
Spartans
Spartans 50%
Average
Average 50.37%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.37% of the home team's points and 49.63% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Spartans with an advantage of 139 points against 117. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.41% to 45.59%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.31% with a coefficient of 4.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.61, and for the away team's victory it is 1.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 23.25%, and the away team's victory - 76.75%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Edinburgh City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 21.76%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.61, while in reality, it should be 2.86.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.61
4.29
1.7
Our calculation
2.86
4.29
2.4
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
5.61
2024 October
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