Edinburgh City vs Spartans prediction

Edinburgh City

Match start date: Oct 12, 2024

VS

Tournament: Scotland. League 2

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Spartans

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Edinburgh City and Spartans. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Edinburgh City

For Edinburgh City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Edinburgh City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

05/10

Home

19 Stranraer

1:2

+14

28/09

Away

39 Elgin City

3:3

+54

14/09

Away

19 Clyde

1:1

+22

31/08

Home

39 Peterhead

0:4

+2

24/08

Away

19 Forfar Athletic

3:0

+93

17/08

Home

24 Bonnyrigg Rose

2:2

+21

10/08

Away

51 East Fife

0:2

+7

03/08

Home

35 Stirling Albion

1:2

+19

Spartans

Similarly, for Spartans, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

05/10

Away

19 Clyde

1:1

+23

28/09

Home

51 East Fife

0:1

+38

17/09

Away

39 Elgin City

1:1

+50

14/09

Home

19 Forfar Athletic

1:0

+29

31/08

Away

35 Stirling Albion

0:1

+28

24/08

Home

39 Peterhead

0:0

+32

10/08

Home

24 Bonnyrigg Rose

2:0

+62

03/08

Away

19 Stranraer

2:2

+18

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 232 points to the home team and 281 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Edinburgh City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Edinburgh City 232
Spartans 281

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.75% of victories for the team Edinburgh City occurred in home matches. For the team Spartans this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 50.37%, suggesting a slight advantage for Edinburgh City all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Edinburgh City

Edinburgh City 50.75%

Spartans

Spartans 50%

Average

Average 50.37%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.37% of the home team's points and 49.63% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Spartans with an advantage of 139 points against 117. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.41% to 45.59%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Edinburgh City 117
Spartans 139

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.31% with a coefficient of 4.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.61, and for the away team's victory it is 1.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 23.25%, and the away team's victory - 76.75%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Edinburgh City 23.25%
Spartans 76.75%

Our calculation

Edinburgh City 45.59%
Spartans 54.41%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Edinburgh City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 21.76%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.61, while in reality, it should be 2.86.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

5.61

4.29

1.7

Our calculation

2.86

4.29

2.4

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

5.61

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

30 September 2024 - 6 October 2024

QUANTITY 643

ROI +18.03%

EARNINGS +$11591

7 October 2024 - 13 October 2024

QUANTITY 310

ROI +17.9%

EARNINGS +$5550

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