Defensor Sporting vs Progreso prediction

Defensor Sporting

For Defensor Sporting, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Defensor Sporting conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Progreso

Similarly, for Progreso, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 282 points to the home team and 206 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Defensor Sporting) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.17% of victories for the team Defensor Sporting occurred in home matches. For the team Progreso this indicator is 57.9%. On average, this equates to 56.53%, suggesting a slight advantage for Defensor Sporting all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.53% of the home team's points and 43.47% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Defensor Sporting with an advantage of 159 points against 90. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.99% to 36.01%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.32% with a coefficient of 3.95. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.73, and for the away team's victory it is 5.89. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.25%, and the away team's victory - 22.75%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Progreso's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.65%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.89, while in reality, it should be 3.72.

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.