Cultural Leonesa vs Sestao River prediction

Cultural Leonesa

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: Spain. Primera Division de la Federacion. Group 1

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Sestao River

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Cultural Leonesa and Sestao River. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Cultural Leonesa

For Cultural Leonesa, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Cultural Leonesa conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

15 Amorebieta

1:1

+22

27/10

Home

27 Ponferradina

2:0

+72

19/10

Away

32 Andorra

1:1

+45

12/10

Home

14 Ourense CF

3:0

+44

05/10

Home

27 Tarazona

2:1

+28

28/09

Away

30 Unionistas Salamanca

2:1

+62

22/09

Home

28 Osasuna B

1:0

+28

15/09

Away

25 Zamora

1:0

+45

Sestao River

Similarly, for Sestao River, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

02/11

Home

28 Osasuna B

1:2

+20

27/10

Away

25 Zamora

2:1

+57

20/10

Home

20 Athletic Bilbao B

0:1

+14

13/10

Away

27 Tarazona

0:1

+27

06/10

Home

26 Barcelona B

2:2

+19

28/09

Away

29 Real Union

1:2

+27

21/09

Home

32 Andorra

0:1

+17

14/09

Away

34 Real Sociedad B

1:0

+53

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 346 points to the home team and 234 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Cultural Leonesa) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Cultural Leonesa 346
Sestao River 234

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.93% of victories for the team Cultural Leonesa occurred in home matches. For the team Sestao River this indicator is 58.18%. On average, this equates to 63.05%, suggesting a slight advantage for Cultural Leonesa all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa 67.93%

Sestao River

Sestao River 58.18%

Average

Average 63.05%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.05% of the home team's points and 36.95% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Cultural Leonesa with an advantage of 218 points against 86. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.64% to 28.36%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Cultural Leonesa 218
Sestao River 86

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.11% with a coefficient of 3.83. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.71, and for the away team's victory it is 6.48. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 79.12%, and the away team's victory - 20.88%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Cultural Leonesa 79.12%
Sestao River 20.88%

Our calculation

Cultural Leonesa 71.64%
Sestao River 28.36%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sestao River's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.48, while in reality, it should be 4.77.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.71

3.83

6.48

Our calculation

1.89

3.83

4.77

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

6.48

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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