For Breidablik, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Breidablik conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
26/05
Away
32 Fram
4:1
+203
21/05
Home
35 Stjarnan
2:1
+50
12/05
Away
12 Fylkir
3:0
+66
06/05
Home
40 Valur
2:3
+25
28/04
Away
29 KR Reykjavik
3:2
+53
21/04
Away
57 Vikingur Reykjavik
1:4
+5
13/04
Home
18 Vestri
4:0
+64
08/04
Home
34 Hafnarfjordur
2:0
+64
Similarly, for Vikingur Reykjavik, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
25/05
Away
30 Akranes
1:0
+66
20/05
Away
18 Vestri
4:1
+118
12/05
Home
34 Hafnarfjordur
2:0
+77
05/05
Away
19 HK Kopavogur
1:3
+3
28/04
Home
14 KA Akureyri
4:2
+31
21/04
Home
49 Breidablik
4:1
+173
15/04
Away
32 Fram
1:0
+60
06/04
Home
35 Stjarnan
2:0
+63
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 530 points to the home team and 591 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Breidablik) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.56% of victories for the team Breidablik occurred in home matches. For the team Vikingur Reykjavik this indicator is 59.09%. On average, this equates to 57.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Breidablik all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Breidablik
Breidablik 55.56%
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik 59.09%
Average
Average 57.32%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.32% of the home team's points and 42.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Breidablik with an advantage of 304 points against 252. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.62% to 45.38%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.88% with a coefficient of 4.02. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.75, and for the away team's victory it is 2.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.39%, and the away team's victory - 51.61%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Breidablik's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.52%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.75, while in reality, it should be 2.44.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.75
4.02
2.58
Our calculation
2.44
4.02
2.93
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.75
2024 April
QUANTITY 2867
ROI +7.39%
EARNINGS +$21176
20 May 2024 - 26 May 2024
QUANTITY 564
ROI +4.61%
EARNINGS +$2602
USA. USL. Championship
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