Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlan prediction

Atletico San Luis

Match start date: Apr 6, 2025

VS

Tournament: Mexico. Primera Division

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Mazatlan

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Atletico San Luis and Mazatlan. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Atletico San Luis

For Atletico San Luis, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Atletico San Luis conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

31/03

Away

12 Santos Laguna

3:2

+30

16/03

Away

40 Cruz Azul

0:3

+4

08/03

Home

33 Juarez

1:0

+47

03/03

Away

22 Atlas

1:3

+4

27/02

Home

26 Guadalajara

3:1

+50

23/02

Away

32 Monterrey

1:3

+5

17/02

Home

39 Leon

1:2

+19

08/02

Away

21 Queretaro

0:1

+16

Mazatlan

Similarly, for Mazatlan, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

29/03

Home

22 Atlas

3:2

+34

15/03

Away

21 Queretaro

0:1

+21

09/03

Away

34 Pachuca

1:1

+42

01/03

Home

40 Cruz Azul

1:1

+35

26/02

Home

32 Monterrey

1:0

+45

22/02

Away

39 Necaxa

1:3

+6

15/02

Home

12 Santos Laguna

1:1

+8

10/02

Away

27 UNAM

0:1

+22

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 175 points to the home team and 214 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Atletico San Luis) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Atletico San Luis 175
Mazatlan 214

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.29% of victories for the team Atletico San Luis occurred in home matches. For the team Mazatlan this indicator is 63.64%. On average, this equates to 63.96%, suggesting a slight advantage for Atletico San Luis all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Atletico San Luis

Atletico San Luis 64.29%

Mazatlan

Mazatlan 63.64%

Average

Average 63.96%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.96% of the home team's points and 36.04% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Atletico San Luis with an advantage of 112 points against 77. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.24% to 40.76%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Atletico San Luis 112
Mazatlan 77

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.11% with a coefficient of 3.83. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.12, and for the away team's victory it is 3.75. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.88%, and the away team's victory - 36.12%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Atletico San Luis 63.88%
Mazatlan 36.12%

Our calculation

Atletico San Luis 59.24%
Mazatlan 40.76%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Mazatlan's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.94%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.75, while in reality, it should be 3.32.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.12

3.83

3.75

Our calculation

2.28

3.83

3.32

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Away Win

3.75

Our prediction statistics

2025 March

QUANTITY 2446

ROI +9.69%

EARNINGS +$23697

2025 April

QUANTITY 594

ROI +19.11%

EARNINGS +$11351

Previous week

QUANTITY 634

ROI +15.83%

EARNINGS +$10035

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